KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, January 7, 2022
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +405K; previous +210K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 4.1%; previous 4.2%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 31.03)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.08)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.26%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.2%; previous +4.80%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.8)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous -25K)
Private Payroll (previous +235K)
Participation Rate (previous 61.8%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
3:00 PM ET. November Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +25.0B; previous +16.9B)
Monday, January 10, 2022
10:00 AM ET. December Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 114.49)
ETI, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
Tuesday, January 11, 2022
6:00 AM ET. December NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 98.4)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. January IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 48.4)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 42.8)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Thursday following yesterday's key reversal down signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 35,801.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 36,952.65. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 35,801.54. Second support is the December 20th low crossing at 34,665.50.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 15,492.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 16,294.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 16,659.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 16,768.00. First support is today's low crossing at 15,598.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 15,492.00.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4662.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.If March extends the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4808.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4662.35. Second support is the December 20th low crossing at 4520.25.
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March T-bonds closed down 07/32's at 156-04.
March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 158-27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-10. First support is today's low crossing at 155-15. Second support is the March low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 153-07.
March T-notes closed down 70-pts. at 128.195.
March T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 127.290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.226 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.286. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.226. First support is today's low crossing at 128.140. Second support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 127.290.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
February crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $82.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $79.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $82.13. First support is Monday's low crossing at $74.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.73.
February heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, October's high crossing at $256.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $236.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $248.81. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $256.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $238.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $230.76.
February unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $240.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $219.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 234.41. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 240.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $219.10. Second support is the December 20th low crossing at $201.61.
February Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Thursday as it extends the December-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 6th gap crossing at 4.010 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while signaling that a low has been posted. If February renews the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.050 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 6th gap crossing at 4.010. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.463. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.535. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.050.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the November-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above December's high crossing at $96.90 or below the November 30th low crossing at $95.50 are needed to mark a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the December 15th high crossing at $96.90. Second resistance is the June-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $97.81. First support is the November 30th low crossing at $95.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $95.07.
The March Euro posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday while extending the November-January trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Friday's high, November's low crossing at 112.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the November 30th high crossing at 114.17 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 114.17. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-November decline crossing at 115.23. First support is November's low crossing at 112.22. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 110.60.
The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. If March extends the rally off December's low, the November 4th high crossing at 1.3692 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3373 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the November 4th high crossing at 1.3692. Second resistance is the October high crossing at 1.3826. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3373. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 1.3207.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0899 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. If March extends today's decline, the December 15th low crossing at 1.0791 is the next downside target.If March renews the rally off November's low, the November high crossing at 1.1042 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.1005. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.1042. First support is the December 15th low crossing at 1.0791. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0712.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 75.95 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 79.23 would open the door for additional gains near-term.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 79.23. Second resistance is the November 15th high crossing at 79.99. First support is December's low crossing at 77.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 75.95.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087764 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.086801. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.087401. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.085980. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1799.20 signaling that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends today's decline, December's low crossing at $1753.00 is the next downside target. If February renews the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 1838.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1833.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1838.70. First support is today's low crossing at $1785.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $1753.00.
March silver closed lower on Thursday breaking out to the downside of the trading range of the past eight-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 21.410 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving acreage crossing at 23.360 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rally during the first half of January.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.360. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 24.960. First support is December's low crossing at 21.410. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 21.003.
March copper closed lower on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 435.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 451.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 449.85. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 451.15. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 435.37. Second support is December's low crossing at 411.95.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up $0.01 1/2-cents at $6.03 3/4.
March corn closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.17 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.85 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.17 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $6.33. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.85 1/2. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at $5.62 1/2.
March wheat closed down $0.14 3/4-cents at $7.46.
March wheat closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.50 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.99 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.99. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $8.24. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.50 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.21.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.18 1/2-cents at $7.68 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at $7.46 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.19. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $8.71. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rallycrossing at $7.46 3/4. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $7.24 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.24 1/2-cents at $9.23 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Thursday as it extended the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $8.78 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.84 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.03. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $8.78 1/2. Second support is the September 10th low crossing at $8.51.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down $0.07 1/2-cents at $13.87 1/2.
March soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off the November 30th low, the 87% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at $14.13 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $13.34 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $13.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at $14.13 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $13.34 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.24 1/2.
March soybean meal closed down $2.10 at $411.30.
March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $431.20 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $398.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $416.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-October decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $431.20. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $398.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $391.30.
March soybean oil closed down 55 pts. at 58.89.
March soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 61.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 59.24. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2021's decline crossing at 61.16 First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 51.10.
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February hogs closed up $0.60 at $82.88.
February hogs gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at $87.48 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $80.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at $84.68. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $87.48. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $80.00. Second support is the December 15th low crossing at $78.67.
February cattle closed up $0.13 at $137.38.
February cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $135.50 is the next downside target. If February renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at $141.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $141.43. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $141.85. First support is December's low crossing at $135.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at $134.30.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.13 at $167.30.
March feeder cattle posted a key reversal up and closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $163.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, August's high crossing at $171.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $170.83. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $171.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $165.33. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $163.78.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 235.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 201.45 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed lower for the fifth day in a row on Thursday as it extended the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 23.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.98 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 17.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.38 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cotton closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 118.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks much tallpine!