Excessive Rainfall threat..........same wet areas as earlier this Summer.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.   Press your cursor on the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook	Forecaster: Hart/Kerr Issued: 18/1240Z Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
Current Day 2 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0600Z Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 3 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0731Z Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Wednesday......comfortable Midwest to Northeast. Triple digit heat in the S.Plains......also Southwest and part of the Northwest.

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Nashville TN to NYC but getting pushed southward.

Heat and high humidity COMBINED .....feels like temperature! Still MUGGY today south and east of Nashville to NYC but dryer air is pushing south.

Highs days 3-7............Sizzling in the S.Plains. Magnificent Midwest to East Coast.

How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year. Close  to average in the Midwest to East/Coast!

 Heat backs up to the West!  Record heat in the S.Plains.

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

Cold fronts in the Midwest with cooler air!

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Here is the latest radar image. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Rains the past 24 hours.  Kansas/Nebraska got the most!     

A new map..........thanks mcfarm!

Drying out in a lot of places............but that almost always happens in July                                               

Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry.

NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet!

Rains over the last week, 2 weeks, month and 2 months compared to normal.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

Drought has worsened in those areas(KS/AR should be getting some relief, OK/TX will get worse yet):

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

The low skill, longer range CFS model, pleasant/cool north, blazing heat south and west in week 3, then heat Midwest and East for week 4. 

Precip below:

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles going out 2 weeks:

Today: Much cooler/Midwest, heat backs up West.

In 5+ days:

Hot West/S.Plains, Pleasant Midwest to East.

In 10+ days   Hot West to S.Plains pleasant Midwest to East.

Day 15  Hot West to High Plains, comfortable Midwest to East.

Same questions as the last 3 days:

Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be?

Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward?  Will this act to keep the trough from deepening?

Just less than half of the members have this idea.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

Just got my update form Dr Atkins. Real heat building in the far south, over 100 in places...but the big news is the  cool air coming down from Canada. Later part of July shows very cool for the major midwest areas with major flooding starting and continuing in the July aug time frame....all the way from Miami north......major battle of air masses sitting up with those caught in between to see mother nature in full control...major cool down in 60 days with some snow days 61 to 70 in Montana,,,snow to get into chicago outskirts in early october a real possiblity

Last 12z GFS operational model has latched on to the idea of alot of the Canadian ensembles...........it builds the W. Atlantic ridge back............way back. And squeezes the upper level trough in the Northeast/Midwest out of the picture as it merges with the dome to the west.

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht

This is much warmer(hot) than the previous solution and the consensus of models. Below was the previous, 6z run of the operational GFS:

gfs_namer_372_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_372_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_372_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_372_850_temp_ht

Interestingly, the 12z Canadian model ensembles/average have gone slightly in the opposite direction.........the trough in the Midwest to East is deeper.

Big contrast/disagreement though. Just a few members build the ridge, a few have a very deep trough. 

372h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 2, 2018 00UTC

Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members

The NWS extended forecasts are below.

 Cool Midwest. Hot West to S.Plains to possibly deep South. 

A dry spell in the Central Cornbelt early in week 2, but followed by rain chances returning and the short term forecast for later this week, has rain chances before the dry spell.

Temperature Probability 6-10 day

Precipitation Probability

Temperature Probability 8-14 day

Precipitation Probability

Extreme weather days 3-7:  Heat S.Plains and just east. Heat Southwest and Northwest. Heavy rains East.

Extreme weather days 8-14:

Heat from TX westward.

Hi Mike

Thank you very much for the information

My impression is that all is well with the soya bean  crop  and  continue as such for the next few days ?