Grains Sunday-Monday
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Started by metmike - July 15, 2018, 7:23 p.m.

The weather is bearish but how much lower will we go on weather?

Go here to get the latest comprehensive weather for grains: Monday Weather

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/7764/

Monday early update:

Grains early on Monday may be getting some support from rains missing IN/OH from this last event and a few other areas missing but rain chances increasing again later this week, may put a lid on the oversold bounce.


Comments
By metmike - July 16, 2018, 1:03 a.m.
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Upcoming rain makes grain is driving the market again(much cooler temperatures are especially bearish for corn kernel filling, which offsets the bullish crop report):

USDA report was extremely bearish beans but bullish corn and especially next years wheat.

For Beans:

They raised next years ending stocks in the US from 385 million on the last estimate to 580 million. Wow!

World ending stocks went from 87.02 all the way up to 98.27 Wow!


Corn ending stocks in the US for next year drop to 1.552, just a tad less than the previous estimate. World ending stocks are also less than the previous forecast for next year 154.69 down to 151.96.


Wheat ending stocks for next year drop from the previous forecast of 266 down to 260

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 1:06 a.m.
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CZ has been as low as  350.25..........before the bullish USDA report last Thursday. Currently at 353, this is  75c below the highs from around 7 weeks ago. 


Beans/SX have spiked down to 8.27, new lows. This was over $2.30 below their highs from 7 weeks ago.  Currently they are around $8.35

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 1:07 a.m.
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Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   

Is the bottom in? If we have heat fill(extended heat from late July thru August), it is. If we turn cooler later this month, maybe not.


3 month below


1 year below

                   

5 year below                

                   

 10 year below                

                   
By metmike - July 16, 2018, 1:07 a.m.
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Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently at 10 year lows !!!!!


Soybeans 3 months below

                   



Soybeans 1 year chart below   

                   
                    


Soybeans 5 years below



Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, currently at 10 year lows!

                   

                                    


By metmike - July 16, 2018, 1:10 a.m.
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  By wglassfo - July 11, 2018, 6:49 p.m.            

            

No doubt in my mind

We are watching price destruction

I also think a lot of high price rented land may come back on the market

Rent and land prices always seem to reflect COP

I read where it was thought 82% of all land in Iowa was paid for

Unless we have a repeat of 20% int rates I doubt we see massive farmer Bk as in the 80's

However, make no mistake, grain and livestock plus dairy prices are set to take a further tumble

I doubt we could lose enough potential yield in the growing season left to bring prices back up 2.00 and 70 cents

This crop will sell for less than any of the past 5 yrs and maybe 10 yrs

It happens

Remember

Jimmy Carter

When gov't or presidents mess with our products the farmer is always sure to pay the price

I fear gov't much more than dry/wet weather

Weather usually last for 1 yr unless you farm in a high risk area

Gov't can mess with  market price or some dang thing for a much longer time frame

But:

We will see most farmers tighten the belt on spending which in turn will affect a large portion of the economy

As we see new car sales begin to fall off, with new buyers unable to obtain financing, new farm machinery sales taper off, kitchen appliances fall off as the tarrifs start to increase price, perhaps the demand for steel will taper off a bit

Will beer in a glass bottle make a come back

Doubt it for beer

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

By cliff-e - July 11, 2018, 8:15 p.m.            

            

As long as Don the Con keeps bad mouthing our allies we can expect more of this reality...

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-eu-corn/eu-eyes-symbolic-duties-on-u-s-corn-competition-for-other-supplies-to-rise-idUSKBN1GV2ED

"Remember

Jimmy Carter

When gov't or presidents mess with our products the farmer is always sure to pay the price"-

Therein lies the problem...people don't remember this grain embargo. The grain still moved to Russia but thru back channels of multinational grain cos. Once the grain is loaded and in international waters it can go anywhere. And the farmer got screwed back then just as they are now with Trump's tariff fiasco. 

         


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                            

                By metmike - July 13, 2018, 4:16 p.m.            

            

Extended guidance is looking cool which means the opposite of heat fill for corn............it means a slower rate of maturity and longer time to fill kernels...........which get plumper when its cool.............. perfect weather.


From June 20th:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum

By mcfarm - July 16, 2018, 7:26 a.m.
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have not really seen all this bearish weather. Lots of talk and little action. I know a few place have gotten some cooling {fringe they are called usually} and somebody somewhere got some rain but from what I have seen they seemed really spotty at best...this is day 4 of the current cooler and rain talk and its been about the meanest cool and rainy stretch according to the crop appearamce

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 10:23 a.m.
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mcfarm,

Very astute observation. Am thinking that this is also why we are up at the moment too.


Extended maps are a wee bit warmer too but there is still plenty of rain returning later this week.



By metmike - July 16, 2018, 10:26 a.m.
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From DTN earlier:
https://www.dtnpf.com/mydtn-public-core-portlet/view/ag/newsletter_viewer.do?userId=48185&newsletterName=MorningSnapshot&newsletterEdition=&emailCampaignId=2&ts=1531741831484

Today's Market View

Corn: The trend remains down and crop conditions are favorable with pollination underway.
Soybeans: Mostly favorable weather plus reduced buying from China are keeping soybean prices under pressure.
Wheat: Wheat prices remain under pressure with high spring wheat crop ratings.
Cotton: Thursday's bullish USDA report sent cotton prices higher again.
Live Cattle: Prices continue to correct back from three-month highs with concerns about lighter summer demand.
By metmike - July 16, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
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Very often, on Monday the market will trade expectations for crop ratings released at 3pm CDT this afternoon from the USDA.



These were the very high ratings last week:

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2818.txt

Corn rating down 1%, 75% good/excellent

Beans unch, 71% good/excellent.

Spring Wheat 80% +3%


Am certain that ratings will fall in MO and AR and far S. Plains. They are already so good in other areas, that its not likely that they will increase enough to offset the plunge in those locations, so I will guess a slight drop in ratings -1% corn and -2% beans.




By metmike - July 16, 2018, 11:02 a.m.
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Export inspections out 1 minute ago:

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

By metmike - July 16, 2018, 4:29 p.m.
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Crop ratings did decline as predicted.

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2918.txt


Beans did drop by 2% to 69% good to excellent vs 61% last year. Still a decent rating.

Corn however, dropped a bit more than I thought by 3% to 72% vs 64% last year. Still a decent rating. 

The weather maps/forecasts continue to look bearish. No intense heat, in fact normal to even below normal in the main Cornbelt. That was probably the most bearish for corn earlier today............just the opposite of heat fill! However, the crop deteriorating by 3% may be supportive tonight with us being so oversold.


No widespread shut down of rains but now, we have some increasing dry pockets. In late July and August, its very difficult for rain events to be big/widespread enough to shrink most of the dry pockets.........which tend to expand, even with decent weather because evaporation exceeds precipitation this time of year with average weather. 

Corn, especially is tapping into soil moisture that was deposited earlier in the Summer/Spring, while it waits for the next round of rains.........even as soil moisture slowly gets depleted in many places.