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By metmike - July 14, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
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Not much excessive Rainfall threat.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk........not very high with the storms.   Press your cursor on the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 14, 2018, 10:43 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Sunday......very warm to hot in alot of places............then cooling N.Plains/Upper Midwest on Sunday.

                    

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 10:45 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!

Current Dew Points

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 10:46 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity .....feels like temperature!

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 10:49 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7 shows Most Pleasant Midwest then eastward.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 10:50 a.m.
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How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year. Getting back down closer to average in the Midwest! Heat backs up to the West!

High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 10:53 a.m.
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Midwest fronts are where the action will be!


https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 10:54 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 10:58 a.m.
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Satellite picture....................from satellite in geostationary orbit. More on geostationary orbit later:


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 10:59 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  KS/IA/IL/WI/MI............along the cold front.     

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 11 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 11:03 a.m.
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Drying out the last 2 weeks in many places(data is not updated at the moment to include rains the last day)

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 11:06 a.m.
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Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 11:10 a.m.
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Drought has worsened in those areas(MO should be getting some relief):

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

                                    

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 11:15 a.m.
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The longer range CFS model,  cool and dry for week 3 which has been the theme all of last week but it now has big heat returning in week 4........instead of continuing cool. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - July 14, 2018, 11:17 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles going out 2 weeks:

Today: Very Warm to Hot
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Hot West, Cool Midwest to East.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days   Hot West cool Midwest.
NCEP Ensemble t = 240 hour forecast product


Day 15  Hot West, Cool vs average Southeast.NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


By metmike - July 14, 2018, 11:22 a.m.
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Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be?

Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward?  Will this act to keep the trough from deepening?

Just less than half of the members have this idea.


360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members