INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 14, 2021, 8:01 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, October 14, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg

 

                       Continuing Claims

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Refinery Usage

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, (Bbl/day) Net Chg

 



 

 

1:00 PM ET. IMF Debate on the Global Economy

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, October 15, 2021   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 34.3)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 20.5)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 33.7)

 

                       Prices Received (previous 47.8)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

 



 

 

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +1.8%)

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September Import & Export Price Indexes

 



 

 

                       Import Prices (previous -0.3%)

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.1%)

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -2.4%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1265.1K)  

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1041.9K)  

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 333.2K)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

 



 

 

                       Total Inventories (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 71.0)

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 67.1)

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 77.1)

 



 

 

Monday, October 18, 2021   

 



 

 

9:15 AM ET. September Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

 



 

 

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 76.4%)

 

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.2)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October NAHB Housing Market Index

 



 

 

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 76)

 



 

 

Tuesday, October 19, 2021   

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

 



 

 

                       Total Starts (previous 1.615M)

 

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (previous +3.9%)

 

                       Building Permits (previous 1.728M)

 

                       Building Permits, M/M% (previous +6.0%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

Wednesday, October 20, 2021   

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W%

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%

 

                       Refinance Idx

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W%

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Refinery Usage

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, (Bbl/day) Net Chg

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extended Wednesday's rally. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 15,001.25 would renew the rally off October's low while opening the door for a test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,144.77. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 13,825.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 15,001.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,141.86. First support is the 25% retracement of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 14,474.38. Second support is the 38% retracement of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 13,825.88.  



The December S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high.Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4423.26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at 4214.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4423.26. Second resistance is the September 27th high crossing at 4472.00. First support is July's low crossing at 4214.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 42101.63.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-August rally crossing at 155-23 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 160-10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-31. First support is the June 16th low crossing at 156-15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-August rally crossing at 155-23.



December T-notes were higher overnight as they extend the rebound off Monday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are  possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.285 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off August's, the 87% retracement level of the March-August rally crossing at 130.207 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.285. Second resistance is the October 4th high crossing at 132.085. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-August rally crossing at 130.207. Second support is March's low crossing at 130.010.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:November crude oil was steady to higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $92.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $82.18. Second resistance is the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $92.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.21.



November heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.7919 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3629 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $2.5520. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.7919. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.4783. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.3629.  



November unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2396 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.4372. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 281.81. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.3524. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2397.



November Henry natural gas was high overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.862 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.876 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 6.466. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at 6.671. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.862. Second support is the September 21st low crossing at 4.766.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $94.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $94.57. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $94.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.18.



The December Euro was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $114.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $116.56. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $115.38. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $114.56.



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3727 are needed to signal the near-term trend is turning neutral to bullish.If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3223 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3727. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3917. First support is the September 29thlow crossing at 1.3412. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3223.  



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0881 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, March's low crossing at 1.0654 is the next downside target. First resistance is is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0881. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.0996. First support is the September 30th low crossing at 1.0693. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0654.

 

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the July 6th high crossing at $81.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.26 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 80.82. Second resistance is the July 6th high crossing at $81.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.26. Second support is the September 29th low crossing at $78.27.



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the November-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.087675 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.089832 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.089832. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.090572. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.087915. Second support is the November-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.087675.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the September 14th high crossing at $1810.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 6th low crossing at $1745.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 14th high crossing at $1810.60. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1836.90. First support is the October 6thlow crossing at $1745.40. Second support is the September 29th low crossing at $1721.10.



December silver was steady to higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.333 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $21.120 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.333. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $24.000. First support is the September 29th low crossing at $21.410. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $21.120. 



December copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 4.7095 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2564 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.5960. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.7095. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2564. Second resistance is September's low crossing at 4.0160.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the September low of $4.97 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 30th high crossing at $5.48 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the August 30th high crossing at $5.58. First resistance is the September 30th high crossing at $5.48 1/2. Second resistance is the August 30th high crossing at $5.58. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.06 3/4. Second support is the September's low crossing at $4.97 1/2.   



December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the September 30th low crossing at $7.01 1/4. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.38 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.38 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $7.63 1/2. First support is the September 30th crossing at $7.1 1/4. Second support is the September 21st low crossing at $6.86.



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.20 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $7.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $7.64 1/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $7.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.20 3/4. Second support is the September 28th low crossing at $7.03. 



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.11 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.60. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.23 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.11 1/4.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $11.52 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.53 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.89 1/4. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.89 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $11.84 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $11.52 1/2.

 

December soybean meal was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $307.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $329.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $318.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $329.10. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $309.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $307.30.


December soybean oil was stead to slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the August 16th high crossing at 64.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 63.08. Second resistance is the August 16th high crossing at 64.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.55. Second support is September's low crossing at 54.18.       

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 14, 2021, 2:01 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Natural gas.....very BULLISH EIA number +81 BCF, much less than expected from lack of winds(generating electricity) last week.........huge surprise!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75979/


Latest Weather......turning cooler......closer to average in week 2

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75004/


Exports + more this week.......grains having a great day on Thursday

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/76013/


Updated Winter/La Nina forecast

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73659/



Tropical Storm Paula to hit Mexico

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/76054/


 Crop conditions......harvest ahead of average

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/76104/



New topic........bonds/inflation/DX/Debt ceiling...........Mark

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/76046/


USDA report Tuesday

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/76043/


 Coffee.............continues to soar higher despite very bearish weather in Brazil

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75900/


Cotton............still at 10 year highs another huge up day on Thursday

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75654/


South America weather.............bearish!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75828/


Week in Review................Tim

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75941/


China/energy/inflation/interest rates.........Wayne

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75648/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/75928/