Shortages
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Started by wglassfo - Sept. 18, 2021, 11:23 a.m.

Some of you may have seen shelves in your favorite food store with smaller amounts of food on the shelf or even your favorite brand is sold out. Not to worry as there are other brands or other stores.

Well: Let me tell you about the up coming harvest and the machinery required to harvest millions of acres

There is one older J.D combine which is still popular on 1000's of farms. It happens to be a 9500 J. D. combine which means nothing to you, but a very good combine, so long as parts are available for repairs. This combine is still being used on hundreds of farms. We have a farm family using this model of combine in our neighbour hood.

J.D is reported to have only two very important chains in stock in all of the USA, possibly NA. These chains can and will break and be destroyed and most of them absolutely not repairable

So what happens when those two chains disappear off the shelf. No more chains are likely to appear before most of the harvest is complete or maybe longer. Nobody really knows when stuff comes in those container ships. Are they or could they be made locally. Perhaps?? but we are talking an older combine with a limited demand until you need that chain and then it becomes very important. For sure you will wait a considerable amount of time. The only option is a trip to the junk yard and perhaps after several junk yards or calls to said junk yards, will you find a used chain which you hope, will not break, given the amount of use on a used chain.

Tires are another thing in short supply.  One person took his combine to the local machinery repair shop and needed a master brake assembly. Nothing available, so he will be forced to operate that combine with no master brake assembly. Would you drive a car with no master brake assembly

I expect we will hear some horror stories about machines sitting, unused, for lack of parts

This happens in 3rd world countries but never in the USA

What happens this harvest season I have no idea

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Re: Shortages
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By wglassfo - Sept. 18, 2021, 1:12 p.m.
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Just FYI and some of my thoughts

I just read a headline that put my 100% inflation, down on the farm, in the back corner

We have all read some thing about shipping containers being is short supply, I would think

Well: the headline just said that 2 yrs ago the cost of a 20'  container was $2000.00 Today the cost is 25,000.00

Now that is inflation and even at that price a shortage exists

Anybody have any doubts we will see super inflation

My definition of super inflation is 10% real inflation/yr not that CPI number the Fed uses

Now some body may dispute my thinking, which would please me very much if you dis-agree and why do you dis-agree. I want to hear every thought as I am making plans for super inflation with large scale purchases now. This yr. and some debt to pay for the large capital expense. We might continue with large purchases even at today's inflated price., for expensive machinery. A depreciating asset seems a poor investment but that is what we are doing.

A negative COP and machinery inflation is not an easy road to navigate.

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2021, 1:20 p.m.
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Dang Wayne..........it sure is great to see you back posting again!

You must be feeling much better!


                Update Re: My trio to hospital etc.            

                           Started by wglassfo - Sept. 11, 2021, 8:06 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74786/