KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 705.6)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 258.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.2%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3292.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.8%)
8:30 AM ET. August Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0.3%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.1%)
8:30 AM ET. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 18.3)
Employment Idx (previous 12.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 14.8)
Prices Received (previous 46.0)
9:15 AM ET. August Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 76.1%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.7)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 423.867M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.528M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.999M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.215M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 133.586M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.141M)
Refinery Usage (previous 81.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.954M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -2.866M)
Thursday, September 16, 2021
8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 19.4)
Prices Paid (previous 71.2)
Employment (previous 32.6)
New Orders (previous 22.8)
Prices Received (previous 53.9)
Delivery Times (previous 26.3)
Inventories (previous -18.1)
Shipments (previous 18.9)
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous -1.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 310K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -35K)
Continuing Claims (previous 2783000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -22K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2923B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +52B)
4:00 PM ET. July Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 17, 2021
10:00 AM ET. August State Employment and Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 70.2)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 65.2)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 77.9)
Monday, September 20, 2021
10:00 AM ET. September NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 75)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline of the past five trading sessions. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,408.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness. If September resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 15,708.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,408.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,132.67.
The September S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-week's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4425.85 would opened the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 4347.75. If September resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the September 3rd high crossing at 4549.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4425.85. Second support is August's low crossing at 4347.75.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 20th high crossing at 166-06 would open the door for a test of August's high crossing at 167-00. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 163-06 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 162-17. First resistance is the August 19th high crossing at 166-06. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 167-00. First support is the August's low crossing at 162-17. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 161-06.
September T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight while extending the July-September trading range. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the September 3rd high crossing at 134.155 would open the door for a possible test of the August 17th high crossing at 134.195. Closes below August's low crossing at 133.095 would renew the decline off August's high and open the door for a possible test of the July 14th low crossing at 132.300. First resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 134.195. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. First support is August's low crossing at 133.095. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.300.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:October crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight gains were underpinned by an industry group, which reported that weekly crude inventories and fuel inventories had decreased.Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the July 30th high is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $71.63. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $73.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.10. Second support is August's low crossing at $61.74.
October heating oil was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at $2.2048 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1019 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $2.1944. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $2.2048. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.1019. Second support is August's low crossing at $1.8971.
October unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.1013 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 30th high crossing at 2.2117. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.1013. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.8726.
October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at 5.627 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.500 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.485. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at 5.627. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.935. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.500.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $92.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $92.88 would renew the rally off September's low. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $92.88. Second resistance is the August 27th high crossing at $93.18. First support is the September 3rd low crossing at $91.94. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $91.78.
The December Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the September 3rd high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the June 25th high crossing at $120.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $119.38. Second resistance is the June 25th high crossing at $120.13. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.18. Second support is August's low crossing at $116.90.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at 1.3977 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3727 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3917. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at 1.3977. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3727. Second support is the August 27th low crossing at 1.3682. Third support is August's low crossing at 1.3608.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0955 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at 1.0840 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 1.1015. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1103. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0844. Second support is July low crossing at 1.0840.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the September 8th low crossing at $78.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at $80.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 3rd high crossing at 80.09. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $80.46. First support is the September 8th low crossing at $78.35. Second support is August's low crossing at $77.24.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight while extending the July-September trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. From a broad perspective December needed to close above August's high crossing at 0.092040 or below August's low crossing at 0.090390 to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the August 16th high crossing at 0.091710. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092040. First support is the August 11th low crossing at 0.090390. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089690.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at $1861.30 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the August 19th low crossing at $1774.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 3rd high crossing at $1836.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at $1861.30. First support is the August 19th low crossing at $1774.60. Second support is August's low crossing at $1677.90.
December silver was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.632. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the August 20th low crossing at $22.880 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 3rd high crossing at $24.945 would renew the rally off August's low while opening the door for a possible test of August's high crossing at $26.130. First resistance is September's high crossing at $24.945. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $26.130. First support is the August 20th low crossing at $22.880. Second support is August's low crossing at $22.350.
December copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.2060 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the July 27th high crossing at 4.5860 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.4715. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at 4.5860. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.2060. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.9615.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low.Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/4 is the next upside target. However, it will take closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.44 to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off August's high, the April 1st gap crossing at $4.77 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.44. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.97 1/2. Second support is the April 1st gap crossing at $4.77 1/2.
December wheat was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.19 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at $6.60 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.19 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.82 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at $6.60 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.58 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.01 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.11. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at $6.79 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at $6.58 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.44 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.00. Second resistance is the August 30th high crossing at $9.27. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $8.61 1/2. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.44 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.99 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off August's high, the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.31 3/4. First support is the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $346.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $324.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $346.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $355.20. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $335.40. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $324.40.
December soybean oil was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 51.98 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.53 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.53. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.86. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 55.36. Second support is June's low crossing at 51.98.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.25 at $80.52.
October hogs closed lower for the seventh day in a row on Tuesday as it extends the decline off the August 30th high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $86.31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $86.31. Second resistance is the August 30th high crossing at $91.42. First support is today's low crossing at $79.77. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.13.
October cattle closed up $1.80 at $124.08.
October cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $127.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at $122.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $124.57. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $127.05. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $120.96. Second support is June's low crossing at $122.90.
October Feeder cattle closed up $2.70 at $158.15.
October feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $152.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.61 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $161.32. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.61. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $155.98. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $152.42.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $181.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $191.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the November 2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 28.21 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.73 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 17.74. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.43 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 97.35 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Natural gas:
Tuesday after the close:
Natural gas futures on Tuesday extended the ferocious rally launched a day earlier, hitting a high point for the year, as traders fixated on supply/demand imbalance concerns and cash prices continued to escalate. The October Nymex contract gained 2.9 cents day/day and settled at $5.260/MMBtu. A day earlier, the prompt month soared nearly 30 cents.…
Natural gas futures rocketed higher early Wednesday as supply concerns continued to grip the market. The October Nymex contract was up 17.4 cents to $5.434/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. The continued gains in Henry Hub futures coincide with rallying prices overseas and storage adequacy concerns both at home and abroad, according to Bespoke Weather…
metmike: Both the GFS and European model got cooler/much cooler and less bullish overnight. But Sept is not a good weather market for natural gas and ng is trading very low storage and concerns that we won't have enough this Winter........not short term weather model changes. Wait until later in October and then we might see some great weather trading.
CDD's pass up HDD's seasonally in just over 3 weeks, so at this time of year, neither of them tend to be very robust(though the next 5 days of heat is pretty impressive for September, it's been in the forecast for over a week).