INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 12, 2018, 7:59 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, July 12, 2018   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. June CPI

 



 

 

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.9%; previous +2.8%)

 



 

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1142.4K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1045K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 300.4K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 225K; previous 231K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1739000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +32K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. June Real Earnings

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2152B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +78B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. June Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. June Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, July 13, 2018   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. June Import & Export Price Indexes

 



 

 

                       Import Prices (expected +0.0%; previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +5.9%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 98.0; previous 99.3)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 87.4)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 117.9)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. U.S. stocks are poised to resume their recent push higher today, with equity futures rising amid signs the U.S. and China are open to discussing their trade dispute in high-level negotiations, potentially heading off a global trade war. Traders were also looking ahead to inflation data, which could help steer the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policies. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 7358.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 7174.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 7358.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7189.11. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7174.40.    



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 2809.03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2737.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 2809.03. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2737.34. Second support is June's low crossing at 2694.50.       



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018  decline crossing at 147-09 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 146-11. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 147-09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-09.  



September T-notes were lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.003 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 121.212. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.003. Second support is June's low crossing at 118.295.    



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: AugustNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's huge decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08 is the next upside target.First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 75.27. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.28.    



August heating oil was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends Wednesday's decline, June's low crossing at 206.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 217.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.21. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.62.



August unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 212.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.04. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 226.86. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.



August Henry natural gas was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 2.727 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.906 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.852. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.906. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.780. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.727.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off Monday's low, June's high crossing at 95.26 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 93.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 95.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is Monday's low crossing at 93.44. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the February-June-decline crossing at 93.30.



The September Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.16 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 119.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119.40. First support is June's low crossing at 115.82. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. 



The September British Pound was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a pause in the rally off June's low is possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3247 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3410 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3410. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. First support is June's low crossing at 1.3095. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048.  



The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight and is testing trading range support marked by May's low crossing at 1.0057. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below May's low crossing at 1.0057 could mark a downside breakout of a two-month old trading range thereby leading to additional weakness near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.0219 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is May's low crossing at 1.0075. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.0014. 



The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.81 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.97. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is June's low crossing at 74.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.



The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight and testing key support marked by last-October's low crossing at 0.8908 as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, last-October low crossing at 0.8908 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9089 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9089. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9146. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.8915. Second support is last-October low crossing at 0.8908. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1262.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1262.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1274.40. First support is the 62% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20. Second support is the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00.



September silver was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the July-2017 low crossing at 15.625 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.261 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.261. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.496. First support is the overnight low crossing at 15.780. Second support is the July-2017 low crossing at 15.625. 



August copper was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 rally crossing at 257.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.22 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 285.89. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.22. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 rally crossing at 272.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 rally crossing at 257.85.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are. If December extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.70 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.80 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.52 3/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  



December wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 4.83 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.30 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.30 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.38 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.90. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 4.83 3/4.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 19 1/2-cents at 4.98 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If December resumes the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. Multiple closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.33 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.33 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.58. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.93 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.76 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.76 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.89. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 5.43. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's losses. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 8.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.90 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.90 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.20 1/2. First support is psychological support crossing at 8.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.25.



December soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 318.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 338.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 338.90. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 349.60. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 323.20. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40. 



December soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 28.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.63. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.88. First support is June's low crossing at 28.50. Second support is the August-2015 crossing at 28.17.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed down $0.98 at $68.80. 



August hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 67.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 77.18. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 80.00. First support is today's low crossing at 68.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at 67.35.  



October cattle closed down $1.58 at 106.25. 



October cattle closed lower on Wednesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 106.87 thereby opening the door for additional weakness near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 105.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 108.56 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 105.13. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.50.  

 

August Feeder cattle closed down $2.45 at $149.40. 



August Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, is February's high crossing at 155.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 153.26. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 155.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.89.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target.   



September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 23.41 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. 



October sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 11.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 80.88 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - July 12, 2018, 10:14 a.m.
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Thanks Tallpine!