There is a huge USDA crop report out at 11am tomorrow!

Any guesses on changes?

Crop production is going UP because of the high ratings.

Will exports be cut?

Crop ratings from Monday:

Corn rating down 1%, 75% good/excellent

Beans unch, 71% good/excellent.

Spring Wheat 80% +3%

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2818.txt

CZ at 355.5 the new low  This is over 70c below the highs from around 6 weeks ago. 

Beans are around 855. New lows of 851 were set earlier. This is over $2 below their highs from 6 weeks ago. 

Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   

Is the bottom in? If we have heat fill(extended heat from late July thru August), it is. If we turn cooler later this month, maybe not.

3 month below

1 year below

5 year below                                      10 year below

Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently at 10 year lows !!!!!

Soybeans 3 months below

Soybeans 1 year chart below   

Soybeans 5 years below

Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, currently at 10 year lows!

No doubt in my mind

We are watching price destruction

I also think a lot of high price rented land may come back on the market

Rent and land prices always seem to reflect COP

I read where it was thought 82% of all land in Iowa was paid for

Unless we have a repeat of 20% int rates I doubt we see massive farmer Bk as in the 80's

However, make no mistake, grain and livestock plus dairy prices are set to take a further tumble

I doubt we could lose enough potential yield in the growing season left to bring prices back up 2.00 and 70 cents

This crop will sell for less than any of the past 5 yrs and maybe 10 yrs

It happens

Remember

Jimmy Carter

When gov't or presidents mess with our products the farmer is always sure to pay the price

I fear gov't much more than dry/wet weather

Weather usually last for 1 yr unless you farm in a high risk area

Gov't can mess with  market price or some dang thing for a much longer time frame

But:

We will see most farmers tighten the belt on spending which in turn will affect a large portion of the economy

As we see new car sales begin to fall off, with new buyers unable to obtain financing, new farm machinery sales taper off, kitchen appliances fall off as the tarrifs start to increase price, perhaps the demand for steel will taper off a bit

Will beer in a glass bottle make a come back

Doubt it for beer

As long as Don the Con keeps bad mouthing our allies we can expect more of this reality...

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-eu-corn/eu-eyes-symbolic-duties-on-u-s-corn-competition-for-other-supplies-to-rise-idUSKBN1GV2ED

"Remember

Jimmy Carter

When gov't or presidents mess with our products the farmer is always sure to pay the price"-

Therein lies the problem...people don't remember this grain embargo. The grain still moved to Russia but thru back channels of multinational grain cos. Once the grain is loaded and in international waters it can go anywhere. And the farmer got screwed back then just as they are now with Trump's tariff fiasco.