Natural Gas Wednesday
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Started by metmike - July 11, 2018, 9:51 a.m.

For the latest Natural Gas weather, go here:

August Natural Gas Called Higher as Forecasts Modestly Warmer

     8:58 AM    

August natural gas futures were set to open Wednesday about 1.9 cents higher at around $2.807/MMBtu with overnight forecasts stable and analysts looking for cash strength and profit-taking to potentially push prices higher early in the session. Read

By metmike - July 11, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
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 EIA number +78 bcf from last week. Slightly bearish as we went down a bit just after the release.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region06/29/1806/22/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East460  430  30  30   560  -17.9  569  -19.2  
Midwest455  425  30  30   696  -34.6  614  -25.9  
Mountain139  133  6  6   187  -25.7  163  -14.7  
Pacific257  251  6  6   286  -10.1  302  -14.9  
South Central841  835  6  6   1,141  -26.3  997  -15.6  
   Salt245  252  -7  -7   333  -26.4  288  -14.9  
   Nonsalt596  583  13  13   808  -26.2  710  -16.1  
Total2,152  2,074  78  78   2,869  -25.0  2,645  -18.6


By metmike - July 11, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
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These were the temperatures that occurred during the 7 day period that was used for the last EIA report:

By metmike - July 11, 2018, 10:42 a.m.
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These temperatures below cover the period for tomorrows EIA report  It was a hot week!

Below, they are broken down into Highs/Lows for the same 7 day period:

By metmike - July 11, 2018, 10:43 a.m.
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July 10, 2018

Short-Term Energy Outlook From US Energy Information Administration:

  • U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 73.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.3 Bcf/d in 2018, which would establish a new record. EIA expects natural gas production will rise by an additional 3.1 Bcf/d in 2019 to 84.5 Bcf/d.
  • The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.97/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in June. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/MMBtu in 2018 and $3.04/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for October 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending July 5, 2018, suggest a range of $2.37/MMBtu to $3.59/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for October Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 34% in 2018 and to 35% in 2019. In this outlook, coal's forecast share of electricity generation falls from 30% in 2017 to 28% in 2018 and to 27% in 2019. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and is forecast to be slightly less than that share in 2018 and in 2019. Nonhydropower renewables provided slightly less than 10% of electricity generation in 2017 and are expected to provide more than 10% in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was 7% in 2017 and is forecast to be slightly less than that share in 2018 and in 2019.
  • After declining by 0.9% in 2017, EIA forecasts that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will increase by 1.8% in 2018 and decrease by 0.5% in 2019. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.
By metmike - July 11, 2018, 10:44 a.m.
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  • U.S. residential electricity price
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price
  • World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
  • U.S. natural gas prices
By metmike - July 11, 2018, 10:46 a.m.
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                By metmike - July 10, 2018, 2:30 p.m.            


Natural gas is testing the uptrend line from the Dec 2017 lows, just above 2.6,  connecting to the higher lows in Feb. just below 2.7, then the higher lows in May at 2.727.

Natural gas 3 months

Naturalgas 1 year below

Naturalgas 5 years below


Naturalgas10years below                
By metmike - July 11, 2018, 10:47 a.m.
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                By WxFollower - July 10, 2018, 8:06 p.m.            


Production Surge Keeping Natural Gas Futures Bears in Control; Spot Prices Pull Back

     5:19 PM    

 From the very long article found at the above link, this little bit is the key to today's price drop:

"Looking at the weather, overnight changes heading into Tuesday’s session showed cooler trends late next week and next weekend, and those trends continued in the midday data, dropping a few additional cooling degree days (CDD), according to NatGasWeather." 

 I  concur with this as I, myself, noted cooling models/forecasts. The forecast I saw had notable CDD losses in the 6-10 day period, which is consistent with the bolded. Days 11+ were near flat. So,  I'm confident that a cooler 6-10 day period was the main wx influence today as that was dialed in leading to new selling.

By WxFollower - July 11, 2018, 12:36 p.m.
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 Compared to 24 hours earlier, the Euro ensemble 1-15 was warmer (mainly in 6-10 day period) while the GFS ens was cooler. The average of the two was very slightly warmer vs 24 hours earlier.

By metmike - July 11, 2018, 12:59 p.m.
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Thanks Larry,

I am guessing that we are being supported ahead of a bullish EIA report tomorrow, along with the fact that we came down to test Major support........the uptrend line that goes back to the lows in December 2017. 

Where do you get the European model ensemble data from?