KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, August 10, 2021
6:00 AM ET. July NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 102.5)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (previous +5.4%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous -0.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +15.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +17.2%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.7M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and remains poised to extend this year's rally.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,957.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,957.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,528.39.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 27th low crossing at 4364.75 would mark a downside breakout of the late-July-August trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4307.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 4224.00. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4433.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 27th low crossing at 4364.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4307.45.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to lower overnight as they extend the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 164-27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the July 22nd low crossing at 163-09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-21.
September T-notes were steady to lower overnight as it extends last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.066 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the overnight low crossing at 133.190. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.066.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:September crude oil was higher overnight as is consolidates some of the decline off the July 30th high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at $61.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.94 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.94. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $74.23. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67. Second support is May's low crossing at $70.88.
September heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the July 30th high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at $1.9641 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1227 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1227. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2.2120. First support is July's low crossing at $1.9641. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9420.
September unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2228 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $2.3448. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2228. Second support is July's low crossing at $2.0571.
September Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-December's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.946 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off last-December's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.205. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.946. Second support is the July 28th low crossing at 3.837.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it the rally off July's low. overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $93.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $93.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.38. Second support is July's low crossing at $91.78.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high crossing at $119.16, the September-2020 low crossing at $117.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $119.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $119.63. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.32. First support is the overnight low crossing at $117.24. Second support is the September-2020-low crossing at $117.16.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3834 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the June 16th high crossing at 1.4135 is the next upside target.First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3985. Second resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.4135. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3834. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.3573.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the July 20th low crossing at 1.0845 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0998 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1125. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1177. First support is the July 20th low crossing at 1.0845. Second support is the July low crossing at 1.0801.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the July 23rd low crossing at $79.32 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $80.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.68. First support is the July 23rd low crossing at $79.32. Second support is July's low crossing at $78.08.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375 would mark a downside breakout of the July-August trading range. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. Second resistance is the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089635.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1803.90 are needed to signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is broken support crossing at $1754.45. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1803.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1677.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at $1667.00.
September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's sharp loss. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.177 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.177. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.183. First support is Monday's low crossing at $22.295. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344.
September copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 4.1665 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.3946 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.3946. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4.6275. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.2435. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.1665.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July's low crossing at $5.07. If December renews the rally off July's low, the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.
September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.76 1/2.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the August 5th low crossing at $6.87 3/4 or above the August 4th high crossing at $7.19 are needed to clear up near-term direction of the market. If September extends the rally off the July 7th low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.45 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.69 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.41 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $8.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.40.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off the July 19th high, July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $14.18. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. First support is July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $360.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off the July 21st high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $360.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $370.20. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Third support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 58.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 66.34. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. First support is Monday's low crossing at 59.37. Second support is July's low crossing at 58.03.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $3.00 at $84.60.
October hogs closed limit down on Monday as it extended the decline off July's high high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $83.13 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $91.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $97.98. First support is today's low crossing at $84.60. Second support is July's low crossing at $83.13.
October cattle closed down $0.33 at $127.55.
October cattle closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off the July 19th low, June's high crossing at $130.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $129.93. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $130.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.74. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $124.05.
September Feeder cattle closed up $0.10 at $163.43.
September feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renewed the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. If September renewed the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $158.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $165.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $158.95. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $156.58.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Monday as it extended last-week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $165.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $183.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 25.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 19.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 93.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks much tallpine!!