KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, August 10, 2021
6:00 AM ET. July NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 102.5)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (previous +5.4%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous -0.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +15.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +17.2%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.7M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Monday due to profit taking after rising to all-time highs late last week. Additional selling pressure came from a decline in Chevron stocks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 35,246.79 would confirm an upside breakout of July's trading range. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,596.92 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 35,246.79. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,596.92. Second support is July's low crossing at 33,741.76.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed slightly higher on Monday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 27th low crossing at 14,774.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 27th low crossing at 14,744.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,499.17.
The September S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Monday following last-Friday's upside breakout of the trading range of the previous two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4377.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 4302.86. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4433.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4377.62. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4302.86.
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September T-bonds closed down 16/32's at 163-22.
September T-bonds closed lower on Monday as it extended last-Friday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-15. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-16 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally of May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the July 22nd low crossing at 163-09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-16.
September T-notes closed down 65-pts at 133.250.
September T-notes closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.055 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.145 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.055. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.300.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil closed lower on Monday amid mounting concerns over coronavirus infection rates and new restrictions in China, which raised concerns demand. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 30th high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $74.23. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $76.98. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67. Second support is the May low crossing at $61.06.
September heating oil closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off the July 30th low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at $196.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $212.64 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $221.20. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $227.43. First support is today's low crossing at $200.59. Second support is July's low crossing at $202.09.
September unleaded gas closed lower on Monday but well off session low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2200 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $2.3448. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2200. Second support is July's low crossing at $2.0571.
September Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.929 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off last-December's low, the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4.205. Second resistance is the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.929. Second support is the July 28th low crossing at 3.837.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed sharply higher on Monday as it extended the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.86 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is July's high crossing at 93.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 93.43. First support is July's low crossing at 91.78. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-rally crossing at 91.49.
The September Euro closed lower on Monday and below July's low to renew the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the September-2020 low crossing at 117.16 is the next downside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.41 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at 119.19. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.42. First support is today's low crossing at 117.45. Second support is the September-2020 low crossing at 117.16.
The September British Pound closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3832 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the June 16th high crossing at 1.4135 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at 1.3985. Second resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.4135. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3832. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3578.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the July 20th low crossing at 1.0845 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1008 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1008. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1100. First support is the July 20th low crossing at 1.0845. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0801.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.62 signals that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at 80.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.74. First support is the July 23rd low crossing at 79.32. Second support is July's low crossing at 78.08.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday as it extended last-week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.092295. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089605.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold closed sharply lower on Monday as bets mount that the Federal Reserve may soon start cutting back its massive monetary stimulus.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, weekly support crossing at $1667.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1823.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $1839.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-decline crossing at $1857.90. First support is today's low crossing at $1677.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at $1667.00.
September silver closed sharply lower on Monday as it extended the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at 21.344 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.326 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.326. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.281. First support is today's low crossing at 22.295. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at 21.344.
September copper closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 416.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 441.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 441.72. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 462.75. First support is today's low crossing at 424.35. Second support is July's low crossing at 416.65.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.02 3/4-cents at $5.53 3/4.
December corn closed lower on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at $5.07. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.
September wheat closed down $0.07 3/4-cents at $7.11 1/4.
September wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.If September renews the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.08 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.95.
September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.04 1/4-cents at $7.01 1/2.
September Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.65 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $7.19. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.85 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.65 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.07 1/2-cents at $9.08 3/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $8.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.36 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.07-cents at $13.29 3/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.60 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off the July 19th high, July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $14.18. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. First support is the July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4.
December soybean meal closed up $2.50 to $360.20.
December soybean meal closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $360.90 would signal that a double bottom with June's low has been posted. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $360.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $370.80. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00.
December soybean oil closed down 133-pts. at 59.88.
December soybean oil closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 58.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at 66.55. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 66.34. First support is July's low crossing at 58.67. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $57.39.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $3.00 at $84.60.
October hogs closed limit down on Monday as it extended the decline off July's high high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $83.13 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $91.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $97.98. First support is today's low crossing at $84.60. Second support is July's low crossing at $83.13.
October cattle closed down $0.33 at $127.55.
October cattle closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off the July 19th low, June's high crossing at $130.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $129.93. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $130.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.74. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $124.05.
September Feeder cattle closed up $0.10 at $163.43.
September feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renewed the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. If September renewed the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $158.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $165.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $158.95. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $156.58.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Monday as it extended last-week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $165.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $183.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 25.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 19.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 93.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!!!