KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, August 9, 2021
10:00 AM ET. July Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 109.84)
ETI, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. June Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
Tuesday, August 10, 2021
6:00 AM ET. July NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 102.5)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (previous +5.4%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous -0.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +15.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +17.2%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.7M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and remains poised to extend this year's gains following last-Friday's better-than-expected employment report. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,942.26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,942.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,498.64.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last-Friday's gains. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 27th low crossing at 4364.75 would mark a downside breakout of the late-July-August trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4302.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 4224.00. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4433.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 27th low crossing at 4364.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4302.69.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidated some of last-Friday's decline but remain below broken support marked by the 20-day moving average. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-16 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the July 22nd low crossing at 163-09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-16.
September T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.057 is the next downside target. If September renews its rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the overnight low crossing at 133.270. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.057.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:September crude oil was sharply lower overnight as is extends the decline off the July 30th high. Concerns of slowing growth in China along with a rising U.S. Dollar have triggered the the sharpest weekly slump in 9 months The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at $61.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.88 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.88. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $74.23. Third resistance is the July 13th high crossing at $74.90. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67. Second support is May's low crossing at $70.88.
September heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the July 30th high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at $1.9641 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.1237 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.1237. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2.2120. First support is July's low crossing at $1.9641. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9420.
September unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2191 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $2.3448. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2191. Second support is July's low crossing at $2.0571.
September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-December's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.933 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.205. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.933. Second support is the July 28th low crossing at 3.837.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally off July's low. overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $93.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $93.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.30. Second support is July's low crossing at $91.78.
The September Euro was slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high crossing at $119.16, March's low crossing at $117.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $118.97. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.42. First support is March's low crossing at $117.46. Second support is the September-2020-low crossing at $117.16.
The September British Pound was slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3833 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the June 16th high crossing at 1.4135 is the next upside target.First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3985. Second resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.4135. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3833. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.3573.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the July 20th low crossing at 1.0845 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1013 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1125. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1177. First support is the July 20th low crossing at 1.0845. Second support is the July low crossing at 1.0801.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $80.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.74. First support is the July 23rd low crossing at $79.32. Second support is July's low crossing at $78.08.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375 would mark a downside breakout of the July-August trading range. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. Second resistance is the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089635.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was recovered most of its early-overnight losses from a sharp plunge, which began at the start of Asian trading, but remains under pressure as concerns rise that the Federal Reserve may soon start paring back its massive monetary stimulus. Spot bullion fell more than 4% early Monday, dropping $60 in minutes, as the selloff following Friday’s better-than-expected employment data accelerated at the start of trading. Gold likely crashed after trading below June's low crossing at $1754.45, which triggering stop losses on a day when liquidity was low due to holidays in Japan and Singapore. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1809.00 are needed to signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is broken support crossing at $1754.45. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1809.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1677.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at $1667.00.
September silver was lower overnight but well off session low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.351 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $26.090. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.291. First support is the overnight low crossing at $22.295. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344.
September copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 4.1665 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.4162 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.4162. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4.6275. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.2710. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.1665.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July's low crossing at $5.07. If December renews the rally off July's low, the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.
September wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.08 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.95.
September Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off the July 7th low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.45 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.65.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $8.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.36 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were steady to fractionally lower overnight. Overnight weakness set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.61 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If November extends last-week's decline, July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $360.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off the July 21st high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $360.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $370.80. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Third support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 58.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 66.34. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. First support is the overnight low crossing at 60.21. Second support is July's low crossing at 58.03.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $0.48 at $87.60.
October hogs closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $83.13 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at $91.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $97.98. First support is today's low crossing at $85.63. Second support is July's low crossing at $83.13.
October cattle closed up $0.30 at $127.88.
October cattle closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off the July 19th low, June's high crossing at $130.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $129.93. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $130.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.66. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $124.05.
September Feeder cattle closed up $2.18 at $163.33.
September feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renewed the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $158.77 is the next downside target. If September renewed the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $165.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $158.77. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $156.58.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's narrow trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $164.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $186.22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 25.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Friday as it renewed this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 19.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Friday as it extended this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 93.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.