INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 6, 2021, 7:36 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, August 6, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +850K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (previous 5.9%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 30.4)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.33%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.58%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +188K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +662K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 61.6%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. June Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +35.3B)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally, which posted a new contract high. All eyes will be on this morning's employment report for near-term direction. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,932.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,932.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,470.67.  



The September S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 27th low crossing at 4364.75 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4297.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 4224.00. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4425.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 27th low crossing at 4364.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4292.79.               



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-15. Second support is the July 22nd low crossing at 163-09.  



September T-notes were lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.065 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews its rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.065. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.043.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:September crude oil was higher overnight as is consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $71.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $74.23. Second resistance is the July 13th high crossing at $74.90. Third resistance is July's high crossing at $76.07. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $67.61. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67.



September heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at $1.9641 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.1404 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $2.2120. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at 2.2743. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $2.0600. Second support is July's low crossing at $1.9641.



September unleaded gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level  of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2187 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $2.3448. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2187. Second support is July's low crossing at $2.0571.  



September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-December's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.913 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.205. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.913. Second support is the July 16th low crossing at 3.572.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.55 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the  May-July-rally crossing at $91.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.55. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $93.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.79. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-rally crossing at $91.49.



The September Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the July 30th high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.33 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $118.97. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $119.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.33. Second support is July's low crossing at $117.64.



The September British Pound was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the June 16th high crossing at 1.4135 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3834 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3985. Second resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.4135. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3834. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.3573.



The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Wednesday's high. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0964 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1125 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1125. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1177. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1021. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0964.  

 

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $80.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.81. First support is the July 23rd low crossing at $79.32. Second support is July's low crossing at $78.08.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off Wednesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.090888 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. Second resistance is the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.090888. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above $1839.00 or below $1793.10 are needed to signal a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the July 15th high crossing at $1839.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of June's decline crossing at $1857.90. First support is the July 23rd low crossing at $1793.10. Second support is June's low crossing at $1754.50.



September silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Wednesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at $24.515 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.384 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $26.090. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.384. First support is July's low crossing at $24.515. Second support is March's low crossing at $23.825.



September copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 4.1665 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.4511 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.4511. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4.6275. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.3055. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.1665.    



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July's low crossing at $5.07. If December renews the rally off July's low, the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.         



September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off Wednesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.91 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.91 1/4.

 

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off Wednesday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off the July 7th low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.45 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.78. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.60 1/4.  



September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $8.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.32 1/2.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Tuesday's low. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.61 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If November extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

 

December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $361.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off the July 21st high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $361.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $371.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Third support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50. 


December soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 58.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 66.34. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 60.45. Second support is July's low crossing at 58.03.      

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed down $3.00 at $87.13. 



October hogs closed limit down on Thursday as it renewed the decline off July's high high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $83.13 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at $91.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $97.98. First support is today's low crossing at $87.13. Second support is July's low crossing at $83.13. 



October cattle closed down $1.40 at $127.58. 



October cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 19th low, June's high crossing at $130.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $129.93. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $130.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.59. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $124.05.  



September Feeder cattle closed down $1.73 at $161.15. 



September feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renewed the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $158.65 is the next downside target. If September renewed the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $165.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $158.65. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $156.58.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $164.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $187.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. 



September cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 25.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                         



October sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 19.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        



December cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 91.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.33 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 6, 2021, 12:51 p.m.
Like Reply

Thank you tallpine!!


Corn producers........great video from cutworm

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73210/


Vegetative health map...........mcfarm

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73189/


Weather...........heating up!! Rain in some dry spots this week....drying out extended.....bullish.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71672/


Record high PNA..........WxFollower

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/72981/



Natural gas...heating up.........bullish.................we got the expected low/bullish  EIA number!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/72658/


crop conditions

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73047/


August 12, 2021 USDA report

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73133/


crop conditions

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73047/


StoneX crop estimates

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73132/


corn ethanol

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73130/


exports..........good for next year 21/22 on corn Thursday

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73048/


eric snodgrass

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73075/


commodity price inflation.........Wayne/bear

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73017/

By metmike - Aug. 6, 2021, 1:21 p.m.
Like Reply

Week in review with Tim:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73228/


New info on the Pacific and the La Nina added to Larry's great stuff

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/72981/