INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 4, 2021, 4:32 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, August 5, 2021 



7:30 AM ET. July Challenger Job-Cut Report



                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -17.62%)



8:30 AM ET. June U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -71.24B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 206.02B)



                       Exports, M/M%



                       Imports (USD) (previous 277.26B)



                       Imports, M/M%



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (previous 400K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -24K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 3269000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +7K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 414.1K)



                        Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 233.6K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 510.2K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2714B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +36B)

                       

12:00 PM ET. July Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, August 6, 2021 



8:30 AM ET. July U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +850K)



                       Unemployment Rate (previous 5.9%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 30.4)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.33%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.58%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +188K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +662K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 61.6%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



10:00 AM ET. June Monthly Wholesale Trade



                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.3%)



3:00 PM ET. June Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +35.3B)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed down over 300 points on Wednesday after weak jobs data offsets strong earnings data. Today's significantly weaker-than-expected Jobs report came in at a disappointing 330,000 jobs for July. This was less than half pre-report expectations for the 690,000 jobs that were expected to be filled in July. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above May's high crossing at 35,091.56 would mark a potential upside breakout of a three-month old trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,552.07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 33,741.76. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 35,192.11. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,552.07. Second support is July's low crossing at 33,741.76. 



The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below July's low crossing at 14,445.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 15,134.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is July's low crossing at 14,445.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,311.22. 



The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4288.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 4126.75. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4422.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4288.31. Second support is July's low crossing at 4224.00.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed up 12/32's at 166-12. 

  

September T-bonds closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally of May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 22nd low crossing at 163-09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the July 22nd low crossing at 163-09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-01.  



September T-notes closed down 30-pts at 134.290.



September T-notes closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 22nd low crossing at 133.275 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the July 22nd low crossing at 133.275. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.014.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday after a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories added to renewed concerns about demand recovery. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $71.73 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 12th high crossing at $74.90. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $76.98. First support is today's low crossing at $67.85. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67.



September heating oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $212.03 signals that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at $196.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $214.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $221.20. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $227.43. First support is today's low crossing at $206.76. Second support is July's low crossing at $202.09.     



September unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2107 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $2.3448. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2107. Second support is July's low crossing at $2.0571.    



September Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off last-December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are also turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-December's low, the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.865 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.205. Second resistance is the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.865. Second support is the July 16th low crossing at 3.572.  



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar posted a key reversal up on Wednesday signal the possible end of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.69 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.48. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 93.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 91.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.69. 



The September Euro closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 117.47 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 119.19. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.69. First support is July's low crossing at 117.64. Second support is March's low crossing at 117.47.



The September British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the June 16th high crossing at 1.4135 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3826 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3985. Second resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.4135. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3826. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3578.  

 

The September Swiss Franc posted a key reversal down on Wednesday signaling a potential end to the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1125 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0955 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.1100. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-decline crossing at 1.1125. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0993. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0955.



The September Canadian Dollar closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.92 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 80.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.92. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.67. Second support is July's low crossing at 78.08. 



The September Japanese Yen posted a key reversal down on Wednesday signaling a possible end to the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 0.089605. First resistance is the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.092295. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089605.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 23rd low crossing at $1793.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above July's high crossing at $1839.00 or below the July 23rd low crossing at $1793.10 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range an point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is July's high crossing at $1839.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-decline crossing at $1857.90. First support is the July 23rd low crossing at $1793.10. Second support is June's low crossing at $1754.50.  



September silver closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.593 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 23.825 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.593. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.498. First support is July's low crossing at 24.515. Second support is March's low crossing at 23.825.  



September copper closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 436.95 signals that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 471.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 462.75. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 471.10. First support is today's low crossing at 431.60. Second support is July's low crossing at 416.65.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down $0.05-cents at $5.46 3/4. 



December corn closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at $5.07. Closes above the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.    



September wheat closed down $0.07 1/4-cents at $7.17 1/4.  



September wheat posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Wednesday signaling a possible end to the rally off July's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.81 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.81 1/2.



September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.13 1/4-cents at $6.94 1/4.

 

September Kansas City wheat posted a key reversal down on Wednesday signaling a possible end to the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.03 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.69 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.50.  



September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.16 3/4-cents at $9.03. 



September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $8.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.23 3/4. 

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed up $0.06-cents at $13.25 3/4.



November soybeans posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off the July 19th high, July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.62 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $14.18. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. First support is the July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4.



December soybean meal closed up $4.30 to $354.00. 



December soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $361.30 would signal that a double bottom with June's low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $361.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $372.50. First support is today's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00.       



December soybean oil closed down 26-pts. at 61.54. 



December soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.06 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 66.34. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.06. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.58. Second support is the July 7th low crossing at 58.03. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed down $1.35 at $90.03. 



October hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it ended a two-day bounce off last-Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low, July's high crossing at $94.05 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $87.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $97.98. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $87.28. Second support is July's low crossing at $83.13. 



October cattle closed up $0.63 at $128.78. 



October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 19th low, June's high crossing at $130.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $129.93. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $130.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.53. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $124.05.  



September Feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $162.48. 



September feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renewed the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $165.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $161.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $158.58.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $163.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $189.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. 



September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 25.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                         



October sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 19.47 is the next upside target.       



December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 91.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 4, 2021, 7:13 p.m.
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