KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 727.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +16.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 273.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +8.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3361.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +20.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 437.6M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.9M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 236.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.0M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 142.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.7M)
Refinery Usage
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)
N/A IMF World Economic Outlook Update
Thursday, July 22, 2021
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 360K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -26K)
Continuing Claims (previous 3241000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -126K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 272K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 312.5K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 424.7K)
8:30 AM ET. June CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.29)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.81)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. June Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.8M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.5)
Median Price (USD) (previous 350300)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +23.6%)
10:00 AM ET. June Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Leading Index (previous 114.5)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2629B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +55B)
11:00 AM ET. July Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 30)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 44)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 27)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 32)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, July 23, 2021
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 62.6)
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 64.8)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rebounded off Monday's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading as the index tries to consolidate some of its losses off last-Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,065.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,760.02 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 14,996.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 14,445.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,065.54.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4334.73 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4234.19 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of June's low crossing at 4126.75. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4334.73. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4384.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4234.19. Second support is June's low crossing at 4126.75.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight following Tuesday's downside reversal as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-03.
September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.056 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends its rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.056. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.141.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $71.99 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.21. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $71.99. Third resistance is July's high crossing at $76.07. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67. Second support is May's low crossing at $61.06.
September heating oil was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Monday's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9420 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1220 are needed to signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1220. Second resistance is the July 6th high crossing at $2.2120. Third resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2806. First support the May 21st low crossing at $1.9538. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9420.
September unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9626 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.2237 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1684. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.2237. First support is May's low crossing at $1.9926. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9626.
September Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's upside breakout of the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-December's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 3.994 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.636 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.936. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 3.994. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.636. Second support is the July 7th low crossing at 3.495.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $93.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.44. Second support is the July 5th low crossing at $92.00. Third support is the June 23rd low crossing at $91.51.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $117.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.62. Second resistance is the June 25th high crossing at $119.95. First support is the overnight low crossing at $117.64. Second support is March's low crossing at $117.47.
The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3578 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3809 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3809. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.3913. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3578. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3223.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1024 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 15th high crossing at 1.0984. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1024. First support is July's low crossing at 1.0801. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $77.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.47. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.12. First support is Monday's low crossing at $78.07. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $77.74.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090585 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. Second resistance is the May 25th high crossing at 0.092170. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090585. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089605. Third support is long-term support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.089205.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $1796.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1837.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1837.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $1919.20. First support is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $1796.40. Second support is June's low crossing at $1750.10.
September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of is week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at $23.825 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $26.575 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.998. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $26.575. First support is the April 13th low crossing at $24.800. Second support is March's low crossing at $23.825.
September copper was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Monday's decline, June's low crossing at 4.0940 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 6th high crossing at 4.4025 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 6th high crossing at 4.4025. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4305. First support is June's low crossing at 4.0940. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at 4.0000.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The steady to lower overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.46 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.46 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07. Third support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4.
September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.56 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $7.18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.72. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.56 1/4.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 7th low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $6.81 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.24 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $6.74 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $6.81 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.32 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.24 1/4. Third support is July's low crossing at $5.78 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last August's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.48.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. Overnight weakness set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $14.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.48. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. The higher overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $381.50 is the next upside target. However, it will take closes above July's high crossing at $392.70 to renew the rally off July's low and signal that a larger-degree rally is unfolding. If December renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $375.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $381.50. First support is the July 13th low crossing at $355.20. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Third support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50.
December soybean oil was lower overnight and poised to extend Monday's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.69 would signal that a double top with June's high has been posted. If December resumes the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. Second resistance is the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.69. Second support is the July 7th low crossing at 58.03. Third support is the June 25th low crossing at 56.66.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $0.53 at $105.00.
August hogs posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.32 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $106.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.32. First support is June's low crossing at $96.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.
August cattle closed down $0.53 at $119.72.
August cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off June's high, the June 8th low crossing at $117.23 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $122.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $122.60. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $124.33. First support is the July 9th low crossing at $118.85. Second support is the June 8th low at $117.23. Third support is June's low crossing at $114.63.
August Feeder cattle closed down $2.15 at $155.23.
August feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday leaving Monday's key reversal up unconfirmed. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $154.37 would open the door for a test of the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $162.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $161.10. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $154.16. Second support is the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at $168.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $155.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
September cocoa closed higher on Tuesday but not before posting a new low for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of 2020's rally crossing at 22.03 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off last-week's low, July's high crossing at 18.49 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 16.44 the next downside target.
December cotton posted an inside day with a higher closed on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Monday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.77 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 91.66 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!