KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, July 19, 2021
10:00 AM ET. July NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 81)
Tuesday, July 20, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. June New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.572M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous +3.6%)
Building Permits (previous 1.681M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -3.0%)
8:55 PM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +11.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +14.0%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.5M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.7M)
Wednesday, July 21, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 727.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +16.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 273.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +8.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3361.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +20.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 437.6M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.9M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 236.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.0M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 142.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.7M)
Refinery Usage
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)
N/A IMF World Economic Outlook Update
Thursday, July 22, 2021
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 360K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -26K)
Continuing Claims (previous 3241000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -126K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 272K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 312.5K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 424.7K)
8:30 AM ET. June CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.29)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.81)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. June Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.8M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.5)
Median Price (USD) (previous 350300)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +23.6%)
10:00 AM ET. June Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Leading Index (previous 114.5)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2629B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +55B)
11:00 AM ET. July Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 30)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 44)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 27)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 32)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, July 23, 2021
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 62.6)
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 64.8)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as inflation fears overshadow strong retail sales data and better-than-expected earnings reports. Additional pressure is coming from rising concerns that we could see a sharp rise in Covid-19 infections in the coming weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,618.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 14,996.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,618.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,019.02.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4306.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4342.02. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4384.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4306.69. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4229.77.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low due to concerns over rising inflation. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 164-28. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-22.
September T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends its rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.294 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.294. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.103.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil was sharply lower overnight as news that OPEC reached a deal on Sunday to phase out 5.8 million barrels of oil production per day by September 2022. This agreement should give market participants encouragement that OPEC is not headed for a breakup and that the floodgates of production will not open anytime soon. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.14 would open the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.59 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes this year's rally, the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.59. Second resistance is the July 13th high crossing at $74.90. Third resistance is July's high crossing at $76.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.14. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67.
September heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 8th low crossing at $2.0536 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6th high crossing at $2.2120. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2806. First support the July 8th low crossing at $2.0536. Second support is the May 21st low crossing at $1.9538.
September unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1687 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6th high crossing at $2.3123. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1687. Second support is the June 17th low crossing at $2.0925.
September Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the July 7th low crossing at 3.495 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September resumes the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.994 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is the July 6th high crossing at 3.789. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.994. First support is the July 7th low crossing at 3.495. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.283.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it resumes the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $93.05. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.32. Second support is the July 5th low crossing at $92.00. Third support is the June 23rd low crossing at $91.51.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $117.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.77 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.77. Second resistance is the June 25th high crossing at $119.95. First support is the overnight low crossing at $117.78. Second support is March's low crossing at $117.47.
The September British Pound was lower overnight as it has broken out to the downside of this month's trading range to renew the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 1.3913 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.3913. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4006. First support is April's low crossing at 1.3678. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3578.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1034 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1034. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.1231. First support is July's low crossing at 1.0801. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774.
The September Canadian Dollar was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $77.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.34. Second resistance is the July 6th high crossing at $81.28. First support is the overnight low crossing at $78.07. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $77.74.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 8th high crossing at 0.091350 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 8th high crossing at 0.091350. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. First support is July's low crossing at 0.089605. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1793.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1838.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1838.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $1919.20. First support is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $1793.50. Second support is June's low crossing at $1750.10.
September silver was lower overnight and is breaking out to the downside of the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 13th low crossing at $24.800 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.084 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.084. Second resistance is the June 11th high crossing at $28.465. First support is the April 13th low crossing at $24.800. Second support is March's low crossing at $23.825.
September copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 12th low crossing at 4.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 6th high crossing at 4.4025 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 6th high crossing at 4.4025. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4502. First support is June's low crossing at 4.0940. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at 4.0000.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low as extended weather forecast are calling for hot/dry weather to extend into the end of the month across large portions of the western corn belt. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is July's low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4.
September wheat gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the May 18th high crossing at $7.17 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.47 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $7.17 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.67 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.74. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.47 1/2.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 7th low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $6.81 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.15 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $6.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $6.81 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.34 3/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.15 3/4. Third support is July's low crossing at $5.78 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last August's low. Hot/dry weather across the Dakota's and Minnesota through the end of the month continue to underpin this month's rally to its highest level since 2011. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.34 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.55 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.34 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $14.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.42. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $383.50 is the next upside target. However, it will take closes above July's high crossing at $392.70 to renew the rally off July's low and signal that a larger-degree rally is unfolding. If December renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $375.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $383.50. First support is the July 13th low crossing at $355.20. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Third support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50.
December soybean oil was slightly low overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 7th low crossing at 58.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. Second resistance is the March-2008 high on the continuation chart crossing at 71.26. First support is the July 7th low crossing at 58.03. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at 56.66.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $1.23 at $105.53.
August hogs closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.50 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $106.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.50. First support is June's low crossing at $96.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.
August cattle closed down $0.93 at $120.20.
August cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off June's high, the June 8th low crossing at $117.23 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at $122.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $122.60. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $124.33. First support is the July 9th low crossing at $118.85. Second support is the June 8th low at $117.23. Third support is June's low crossing at $114.63.
August Feeder cattle closed down $1.75 at $156.63.
August feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.88 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $162.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $161.10. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.88. Second support is the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $164.65 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 14.15 is the next downside target.
September cocoa closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.47 signals that a short-term top has been posted and opens the door for a test of July's low crossing at 22.68. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.25 are needed to open the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 25.05.
October sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's rally, July's high crossing at 18.49 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 16.44 the next downside target.
December cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 91.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.