KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, July 14, 2021   

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 627)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.8%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 252.4)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.1%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 2791.3)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.3%)

8:30 AM ET. June PPI

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.8%)

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.7%)

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.6%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 445.476M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.866M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 235.497M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.075M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 138.692M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.616M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 92.2%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.547M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.645M)

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

Thursday, July 15, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. July Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (expected 17.3; previous 17.4)

                       Employment Idx (previous 12.3)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 16.3)

                       Prices Received (previous 33.3)

8:30 AM ET. July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (expected 27.0; previous 30.7)

                       Prices Paid (previous 80.7)

                       Employment (previous 30.7)

                       New Orders (previous 22.2)

                       Prices Received (previous 49.7)

                       Delivery Times (previous 29.3)

                       Inventories (previous 17.9)

                       Shipments (previous 27.2)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (expected 360K; previous 373K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +2K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 3339000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -145K)

8:30 AM ET. June Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (expected +1.0%; previous +1.1%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.9%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +3.8%)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 371.4K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 182.3K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 290.8K)

9:15 AM ET. June Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.8%)

                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 75.7%; previous 75.2%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.6)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2574B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +16B)

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

Friday, July 16, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. June Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -1.3%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous -0.7%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.8%)

10:00 AM ET. June State Employment and Unemployment

10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 86.3; previous 86.4)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 83.8)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 90.6)

10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

                       Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous -0.2%)

4:00 PM ET. May Treasury International Capital Data

Monday, July 19, 2021  

10:00 AM ET. July NAHB Housing Market Index

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 81)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,507.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 14,927.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,507.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,949.71.

The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4287.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4383.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4287.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4220.19.               

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-08.  

September T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.199 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends its rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.213. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.199.   

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

August crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes this year's rally, the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98 is the next upside target. If August extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $76.98. Second resistance is the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.36. Second support is May's low crossing at $61.36.

August heating oil was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.0510 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 6^th high crossing at $2.2101. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2806. First support last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.0510. Second support is the May 21^st low crossing at $1.9490.  

August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1810 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 6^th high crossing at $2.3302. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1810. Second support is the June 17^th low crossing at $2.1044.

August Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.994 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.528 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is the July 6^th high crossing at 3.822. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.994. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.528. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.257.  

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 5^th low crossing at $92.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.93. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the July 5^th low crossing at $92.00. Second support is the June 23^rd low crossing at $91.51.

The September Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.97 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $117.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.97. Second resistance is the June 25^th high crossing at $119.95. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $117.86. Second support is March's low crossing at $117.47.

The September British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1.3913 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.3913. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4015. First support is July's low crossing at 1.3733. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.

The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1040 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1040. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.1231. First support is July's low crossing at 1.0801. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774. 

The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at $79.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.65. Second resistance is the July 6^th high crossing at $81.28. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $79.62. Second support is April's low crossing at $79.06.  

The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091120 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091120. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. First support is July's low crossing at 0.089605. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205.  

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1837.00 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off June's high, the April-13th low crossing at $1725.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1837.00. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $1919.20. First support is June's low crossing at $1750.10. Second support is the April-13^th low crossing at $1725.50.

September silver was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.144 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 13^th low crossing at $24.800 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.144. Second resistance is the June 11^th high crossing at $28.465. First support is June's low crossing at $25.580. Second support is the April 13^th low crossing at $24.800. 

September copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 12^th low crossing at 4.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 6^th high crossing at 4.4025 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 6^th high crossing at 4.4025. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4654. First support is June's low crossing at 4.0940. Second support is the April 12^th low crossing at 4.0000.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.48 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. However, it will take closes above last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4.        

September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.47 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, March's low crossing at $5.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.47. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.76 3/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.16 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.94.

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 7^th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.38 3/4 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off July's high, March's low crossing at $5.66 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.38 3/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.69. First support is the July 7^thlow crossing at $5.78 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.66 1/4.

September Minneapolis wheat was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off last August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the January-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.82 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.11 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2. Second resistance is the January-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.82 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.11 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.76 1/4.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

November soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off last-Tuesday's low, July's high crossing at $14.23 is the next upside target. If November renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $12.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30.

December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $369.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. However, it will take closes above July's high crossing at $392.70 to renew the rally off July's low and signal that a larger-degree rally is unfolding. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $369.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $385.60. First support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50. 

December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 25th low crossing at 56.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 64.76. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. First support is the June 25^th low crossing at 56.66. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 52.08. Third support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 47.44.    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed up $1.85 at $105.93. 

August hogs gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the July 1^st high crossing at $105.60 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.72 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 1^st high crossing at $105.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.72. First support is June's low crossing at $96.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.  

August cattle closed up $1.93 at $121.80. 

August cattle closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the  decline off June's high, the June 8^th low crossing at $117.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.95. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. First support is the June 8^th low at $117.23. Second support is June's low crossing at $114.63. 

August Feeder cattle closed up $0.68 at $158.83. 

Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $157.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $162.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $161.10. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $157.40. Second support is the June 14^th gap crossing at $151.90.  

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 14.15 is the next downside target.                

September cocoa posted an inside day with a lower closed on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.26 are needed to open the door for additional gains near-term. If September renew the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.54 is the next downside target.                     

October sugar closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at 16.44 the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.59 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.      

December cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 89.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 17^th low crossing at 83.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.