INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 9, 2021, 4:47 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, July 12, 2021   



12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed sharply higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 35,091.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,314.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 34,887.78. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 35,091.56. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,314.06. Second support is the June 18th low crossing at 33,271.93.

 

The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it posted a new high close as it extended the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,381.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 14,883.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,633.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,381.29. 



The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday as it extended this year's rally to a new high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally upside targets are hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4268.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4362.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4268.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4208.86.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed down 1-12/32's at 162-18. 

  

September T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally of May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 161-08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-11.  



September T-notes closed down 155-pts at 133.135.



September T-notes closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.173 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 134.030. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.173. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.022.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this year's rally, the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98 is the next upside target. If August extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $68.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $76.98. Second resistance is the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98.First support is the June 17th low crossing at $69.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $68.71.  


August heating oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $207.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $221.01. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $207.65. Second support is May's low crossing at $194.90.    



August unleaded gas closed higher on Friday as it erased most of its early-week's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1669 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $2.3302. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1669. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.1044.  



August Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is likely near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.469 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.822. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.520. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.469. 



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing 91.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 92.84. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing 91.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.91.  



The September Euro closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 117.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.43. Second resistance is the June 26th high crossing at 119.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.17. Second support is March's low crossing at 117.47.



The September British Pound closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3904 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3904. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4017. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.3733. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.

 

The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday as it extended the rebound off July's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1046 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0744 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0935. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1046. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0775. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0701.



The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.97 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 79.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.97. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.88. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 79.62. Second support is April's low crossing at 79.06.



The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0091192 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091192. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.092295. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.089605. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.089205.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1835.10 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off June's high, the April 13th low crossing at $1725.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1835.1. Second resistance is the June 11th high crossing at $1906.20. First support is June's low crossing at $1750.10. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $1725.50.  



December silver closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.192 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off May's high, the April 13th low crossing at 24.805 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.522. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.192. First support is June's low crossing at 25.635. Second support is the April-13th low crossing at 24.805.  



September copper closed higher on Monday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 440.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 12th low crossing at 400.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 440.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 447.70. First support is June's low crossing at 409.40. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at 400.00. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down $0.06 3/4-cents at $5.17. 



December corn closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off last-Thursday's high. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible when Monday's night session begins trading. If December extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4.  



September wheat closed down $0.03-cents at $6.15.  



September wheat closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $5.94 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.48 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.82. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.16 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.94.



September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.06-cents at $5.94.

 

September Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this month's decline, March's low crossing at $5.56 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.13. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.43 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.78 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.56 1/4.



September Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.09 1/4-cents at $8.14 1/4. 



September Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.96 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $8.59 3/4. Second resistance is the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.96 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.70 1/4. 

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed up $0.09 3/4-cents at $13.29 1/4.



November soybeans closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $12.91 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $14.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2. Second support is the the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30.



December soybean meal closed down $3.60 to $358.90. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. Closes the 50-day moving average crossing at $387.90 would renew the rally off June's low and would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $387.90. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $404.30. First support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Second support is the December-2020 low crossing at $340.80.      



December soybean oil closed up 176-pts. at 60.94. 



December soybean oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 64.87. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.06. First support is the reaction low crossing at 56.66. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 52.08.     

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed up $1.58 at $101.95. 



August hogs closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 1st high crossing at $105.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 1st high crossing at $105.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.69. First support is June's low crossing at $96.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.  



August cattle closed down $0.05 at $119.23. 



August cattle closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.18. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the June 8th low crossing at $117.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the rally off June's low, the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. Second resistance is the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70. First support is the June 8th low at $117.23. Second support is June's low crossing at $114.63. 



August Feeder cattle closed up $1.85 at $159.18. 



Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $162.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $156.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $161.10. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90. Second support is the June 10th low crossing at $146.75. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 14.15 is the next downside target.               



September cocoa closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.54 is the next downside target.                    



October sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.37 signals that a short-term top has been posted and opens the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 16.44. If October renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 19.47 is the next upside target.      



December cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 89.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 17th low crossing at 83.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.     

Comments
By metmike - July 10, 2021, 1:34 a.m.
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Thank you tallpine!