KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, July 8, 2021
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 364K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -51K)
Continuing Claims (previous 3469000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +56K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2558B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +76B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 452.342M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.718M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 241.572M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.522M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 137.076M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.869M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.902M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.151M)
12:00 AM ET. June Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
3:00 PM ET. May Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +18.6B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,332.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 14,883.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,332.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,867.36.
The September S&P 500 was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the June 2020 low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4204.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4353.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4260.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4204.52.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were sharply higher overnight as they extend the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 161-02. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-07.
September T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends its rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.009 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.167. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.009.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.47 is the next downside target. If August resumes this year's rally, the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $76.98. Second resistance is the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $68.47. Second support is May's low crossing at $61.36.
August heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0714 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $2.2101. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2806. First support the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0714. Second support is the May 21st low crossing at $1.9490.
August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1609 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $2.3302. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1609. Second support is the June 17th low crossing at $2.1044.
August Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's downside breakout of the recent trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.436 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.994 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.822. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.994. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.436. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.198.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.93. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.86. Second support is the June 23rd low crossing at $91.51.
The September Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $117.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.58 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.58. Second resistance is the June 25th high crossing at $119.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.17. Second support is March's low crossing at $117.97.
The September British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3918 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3918. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4018. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.3733. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.
The September Swiss Franc was sharply higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0946 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0946. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1047. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.0801. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at $79.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.90. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $79.62. Second support is April's low crossing at $79.06.
The September Japanese Yen was sharply higher overnight as it extends the short covering rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091218 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091218. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.089605. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1804.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains. If August renews the decline off June's high, the April-13th low crossing at $1725.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1804.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1834.70. First support is June's low crossing at $1750.10. Second support is the April-13th low crossing at $1725.50.
September silver was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.155 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 13th low crossing at $24.800 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.155. Second resistance is the June 11th high crossing at $28.465. First support is June's low crossing at $25.580. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $24.800.
September copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 4.4025 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 12th low crossing at 4.0000 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.4025. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4797. First support is June's low crossing at 4.0940. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at 4.0000.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, June's low crossing at $5.14 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is June's low crossing at $5.14 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4.
September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at $5.94 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.48 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.56 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.84 1/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.16 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.94.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some Tuesday's sharp decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, March's low crossing at $5.66 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.46 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.18 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.46. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.78 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.66 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.95 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at $8.26 1/2. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $8.59 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.95 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.69.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, June's low crossing at $12.40 is the next downside target. If November renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $14.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's sharp decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Tuesday's decline, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $388.80 would open the door for a larger-degree rally during July. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $388.80. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $404.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $360.90. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the June 25th low crossing at 56.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 64.76. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 52.08. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 47.44.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed down $1.53 at $100.83.
August hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $105.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.77. First support is June's low crossing at $96.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.
August cattle closed down $1.98 at $120.42.
August cattle closed lower on Wednesday and marked a downside breakout of the June-July trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.08 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If August renews the rally off June's low, the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. Second resistance is the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.08. Second support is June's low crossing at $114.63.
August Feeder cattle closed down $1.53 at $159.10.
Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $162.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $161.10. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90. Second support is the June 10th low crossing at $146.75.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday but remain below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.40 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Tuesday's decline, May's low crossing at 14.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 19.47 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 89.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 17th low crossing at 83.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks Tallpine!