KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, July 7, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 638.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -6.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 255.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2856.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -8.2%)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +16.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +18.2%)
10:00 AM ET. May Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. June Online Help Wanted Index
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -8.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.4M)
Thursday, July 8, 2021
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 364K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -51K)
Continuing Claims (previous 3469000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +56K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2558B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +76B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 452.342M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.718M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 241.572M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.522M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 137.076M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.869M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.902M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.151M)
12:00 AM ET. June Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
3:00 PM ET. May Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +18.6B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 35,091.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,268.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 34,849.32. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 35,091.56. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,268.83. Second support is the June 18th low crossing at 33,271.93.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,241.41 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14,790.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,484.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,241.30.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally upside targets are hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4249.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4348.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4249.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4198.35.
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September T-bonds closed up 1-17/32's at 162-15.
September T-bonds closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally of May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 163-02. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-14.
September T-notes closed up 210-pts at 133.105.
September T-notes closed higher on Tuesday as it renewed the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163 is the next upside target. Closes below June's low crossing at 131.140 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125. First support is June's low crossing at 131.140. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 130.315.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil posted a key reversal down on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends this year's rally, the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $76.98. Second resistance isthe November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.90.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $68.07.
August heating oil posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $206.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $221.01. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $206.40. Second support is May's low crossing at $194.90.
August unleaded gas closed lower while posting a key reversal down on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1525 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $2.3302. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1525. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.1044.
August Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.393 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.822. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.547. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.393.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar posted a key reversal up on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing 91.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 92.76. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing 91.62. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.82.
The September Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, March's low crossing at 117.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.45. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.01. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.17. Second support is March's low crossing at 117.47.
The September British Pound closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3953 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3953. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4023. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.3733. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0744 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0977 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0977. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1052. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0775. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0701.
The September Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off the June 23rd high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 79.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.36. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.93. First support is today's low crossing at 80.03. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 79.62.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0090623 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090623. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091280. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.089605. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.089205.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1813.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the April 13th low crossing at $1725.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1813.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1833.70. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1750.10. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $1725.50.
December silver closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.518 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off May's high, the April 13th low crossing at 24.805 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.518. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.206. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 25.635. Second support is the April-13th low crossing at 24.805.
September copper closed lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 433.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 12th low crossing at 400.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 433.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 448.72. First support is June's low crossing at 409.40. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at 400.00.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.40-cents at $5.39 3/4.
December corn gapped lower and closed limit down on Tuesday as bearish weather forecast for the Midwest this week triggered today's sell off. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible when Wednesday's night session begins trading. If December extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $6.28 1/4 is the next upside target. Today's close below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.52 1/4 signals that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $6.28 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $6.38. First support is June's low crossing at $5.14 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4.
September wheat closed down $0.26 3/4-cents at $6.26.
September wheat gapped down and closed lower on Tuesday as it renewed the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $5.94 is the next downside target. Closes above today's gap crossing at $6.48 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's gap crossing at $6.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.88 3/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.16 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.94.
September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.35 1/2-cents at $5.82 1/2.
September Kansas City wheat gapped down and closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it renewed the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's decline, March's low crossing at $5.56 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above today's gap crossing at $6.13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's gap crossing at $6.13. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.51. First support is today's low crossing at $5.80 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.56 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.45 1/2-cents at $7.93 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat gapped down and closed sharply lower on Tuesday on bearish weekend weather across portions of the Dakota's and a bearish extended weather forecast for the region and the upper Midwest. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.91 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $8.59 3/4. Second resistance is the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.91 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.66 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.94-cents at $13.05.
November soybeans gapped down and closed sharply lower on Tuesday on bearish weather forecast. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $12.91 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews last-week's rally, June's high crossing at $14.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2. Second support is the the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30.
December soybean meal closed down $25.90 to $362.50.
December soybean meal gapped down and closed sharply lower on Tuesday on bearish weather forecast for portions of the western corn-belt. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. Closes the 50-day moving average crossing at $390.60 would renew the rally off June's low and would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $390.60. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $404.30. First support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Second support is the December-2020 low crossing at $340.80.
December soybean oil closed down 350-pts. at 58.78.
December soybean oil closed sharply lower on Tuesday due to spillover selling from soybeans and meal. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.06 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 64.87. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.06. First support is the reaction low crossing at 56.66. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 52.08.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $2.13 at $102.35.
August hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $105.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.80. First support is June's low crossing at $96.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.
August cattle closed up $0.40 at $122.40.
August cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.04 would signal that a top has been posted. If August renews the rally off June's low, the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. Second resistance is the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.04.
August Feeder cattle closed up $3.58 at $160.63.
Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it renewed the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $162.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $160.93. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90. Second support is the June 10th low crossing at $146.75.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.39 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's decline, May's low crossing at 14.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
September cocoa closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 19.47 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 89.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 17th low crossing at 83.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!