USDA June 30, 2021
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Started by metmike - June 28, 2021, 11 p.m.

@kannbwx

Analysts see U.S. plantings of #corn & #soybeans rising on June 30. 

USDA's March 31 estimates implied corn+soy at 178.7M acres.

 The 26 analysts on average see that at 182.7M acres with a low of 181M and high of 186.2M. Record is 180.3M in 2017.



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To get the corn+soy assumptions I added each analyst's numbers and then took that average since the lows and highs in the ranges are not necessarily the same analysts.

Comments
By metmike - June 30, 2021, 11:24 a.m.
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Report out at 11am............with some price fireworks immediately afterwards.

Market obviously thinks it will be bearish.

By metmike - June 30, 2021, 11:26 a.m.
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All trade estimates for Wednesday's USDA reports, including U.S. acres and stocks. The report is due at 11 am CDT (1600 GMT).

 Among the 15 major USDA report days of the year, June 30 historically produces the most volatility in CBOT prices.


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By metmike - June 30, 2021, 11:27 a.m.
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Trade biases and daily price moves on Acreage and June 1 stocks report days:

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metmike: Historically, this report is almost twice as likely to be bearish instead of bullish and with near record high prices and good planting conditions...........one could understand if the acres end of larger than expected(I don't trade or predicted reports) which might be why we are lower by double digits ahead of the report.

By metmike - June 30, 2021, 11:32 a.m.
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With the bean acres its closer to being even chances, 50/50 regarding the report being bullish or bearish.


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By metmike - June 30, 2021, 12:02 p.m.
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WOW!

Doesn't get more bullish than a reaction like that!

Limit up. 

More to come

By metmike - June 30, 2021, 12:05 p.m.
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@kannbwx

1m

Plantings for U.S. #corn and #soybeans come in below trade estimates. All #wheat comes in above.

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By metmike - June 30, 2021, 12:10 p.m.
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@kannbwx

June 1 stocks of #corn, #soybeans and #wheat all come in slightly below trade estimates, but close. The March 1 stock revisions were basically negligible.

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By metmike - June 30, 2021, 12:14 p.m.
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@kannbwx

#Cotton and small grains plantings on the whole come in a bit below trade guesses (except rice). #Sorghum acres came in below the trade range, falling 450,000 acres from March intentions.

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By metmike - June 30, 2021, 12:57 p.m.
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@kannbwx

All #wheat acres come in above trade estimates thanks to strong winter plantings, but spring wheat comes in only slightly above and durum falls short. Spring wheat plantings are seen down from March and last year.

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By metmike - June 30, 2021, 12:58 p.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. #corn plantings came in below the trade guess at 92.7M acres, up less than 2% from intentions. 

The NW Corn Belt (Minnesota and the Dakotas) added 1.2M acres combined. Iowa and Nebraska planted slightly less than intentions.

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By metmike - June 30, 2021, 12:59 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Plantings for U.S. #soybeans dropped slightly below March intentions. Many of the major production states cut back on acres. North Dakota, however, bumped up to a record 7.2M acres, giving ND a record share of total U.S. soy plantings this year (8.2%).

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By metmike - June 30, 2021, 1:01 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Haven't updated this chart since June 15 (sorry) but it shows exactly what I need it to.

 I can't imagine a clearer message being sent to farmers by the futures mkt in April and early May to plant corn. Perhaps why some major states trimmed soy and added corn.

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By metmike - June 30, 2021, 1:02 p.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. farmers increased principal crop acres by 1.05M over March intentions. North Dakota farmers added more than 1M acres, but Kansas and Nebraska removed a combined 1.28M. The total of 317.2M acres is +2.3% YOY and +4.7% on 2019, both troubled planting years.

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By metmike - June 30, 2021, 1:03 p.m.
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Replying to 

@kannbwx

NASS's special note at the top of Acreage suggests that principal crop acres in ___ of ___ should NOT be compared with the 2021 number because of changes that were made in 2019. 

2016 of 319M 

2017 of 318.3M 

2018 of 319.6M

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