Analysts see U.S. plantings of #corn & #soybeans rising on June 30.
USDA's March 31 estimates implied corn+soy at 178.7M acres.
The 26 analysts on average see that at 182.7M acres with a low of 181M and high of 186.2M. Record is 180.3M in 2017.
To get the corn+soy assumptions I added each analyst's numbers and then took that average since the lows and highs in the ranges are not necessarily the same analysts.
Report out at 11am............with some price fireworks immediately afterwards.
Market obviously thinks it will be bearish.
Trade biases and daily price moves on Acreage and June 1 stocks report days:
metmike: Historically, this report is almost twice as likely to be bearish instead of bullish and with near record high prices and good planting conditions...........one could understand if the acres end of larger than expected(I don't trade or predicted reports) which might be why we are lower by double digits ahead of the report.
With the bean acres its closer to being even chances, 50/50 regarding the report being bullish or bearish.
WOW!
Doesn't get more bullish than a reaction like that!
Limit up.
More to come
Haven't updated this chart since June 15 (sorry) but it shows exactly what I need it to.
I can't imagine a clearer message being sent to farmers by the futures mkt in April and early May to plant corn. Perhaps why some major states trimmed soy and added corn.
U.S. farmers increased principal crop acres by 1.05M over March intentions. North Dakota farmers added more than 1M acres, but Kansas and Nebraska removed a combined 1.28M. The total of 317.2M acres is +2.3% YOY and +4.7% on 2019, both troubled planting years.
NASS's special note at the top of Acreage suggests that principal crop acres in ___ of ___ should NOT be compared with the 2021 number because of changes that were made in 2019.
2016 of 319M
2017 of 318.3M
2018 of 319.6M