my prediction ... 1st qtr GDP will come in at somewhere around 1% or 1.5% growth.
this will cause the fed to pause in the early spring.
if they happen to raise rates in Feb, then they will wait till summer to raise again.
Let's wait for Q4:17 GDP before we speculate on Q1:18, but I suspect you are erring significantly on the side of caution. Indications of growth are pretty strong.
The addition of manufacturing jobs in december, should have an increased affect on the 1st qtr gdp.
There is strength in just about every sector. Service retraced a bit in December, but from unmaintainable high levels. The economy is heating up.
yes, it seems the economy is heating up in some ways, but...
we have to remember the obamacare effect. people open their health statements in early january. and they see higher premiums, and higher deductibles, and it causes a drop in other areas of the family budget.
this is why the 1st and/or 2nd quarter of the year has seen weaker growth, the last 4-5 years.