KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 24, 2021
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 294.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 71.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 287.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 380K; previous 412K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +37K)
Continuing Claims (previous 3518000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +1K)
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +2.7%; previous -1.3%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +6.4%; previous +6.4%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +4.3%; previous +4.3%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q%
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.7%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.9%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +9.4%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex-Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +11.3%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2427B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +16B)
11:00 AM ET. June Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 32)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 50)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 26)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 33)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Reserve Board releases latest bank stress test results
Friday, June 25, 2021
8:30 AM ET. May Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected -2.7%; previous -13.1%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.5%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.6%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.7%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +3.5%; previous +3.1%)
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter GDP by State
10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 86.6; previous 82.9)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 78.8)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.6%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 89.4)
Monday, June 28, 2021
10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 34.9)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 15.7)
Tuesday, June 29, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
9:00 AM ET. April U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +12.8%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.2%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.3%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.2%)
10:00 AM ET. June Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 117.2)
Expectation Idx (previous 99.1)
Present Situation Idx (previous 144.3)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into record territory. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,926.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 14,358.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,926.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,742.47.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4126.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at 4020.00 later this summer. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4258.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4126.75. Second support is May's low crossing at 4020.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-05. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-29.
September T-notes were slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.140 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews its rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 11th high crossing at 133.065. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.140. Second support is May's low crossing at 131.000.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $74.25. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $66.42.
August heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness that would signal that a short-term top has been posted. However, it will take closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0284 to signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.1916. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2806. First support the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0284. Second support is the May 21st low crossing at $1.9490.
August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1159 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.2869. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1159. Second support is May's low crossing at $2.0200.
August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.192 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.786 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.406. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.192. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.069.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.72 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.46. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.46. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $91.39. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.72.
The September Euro was steady to higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $120.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.08. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.83. Second support is the the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.17.
The September British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4072 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4031. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4072. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3788. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0854. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1081 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1064. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1081. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0854. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $79.62 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.81. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $80.08. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $79.62.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090994 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090994. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091603. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.090050. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the April-29th low crossing at $1756.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1855.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1834.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1855.20. First support is the April-29th low crossing at $1756.80. Second support is the April-13th low crossing at $1725.50.
July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the April 13th low crossing at $24.725 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.350 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $26.760. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.350. First support is Monday's low crossing at $25.580. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $24.725.
July copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.4422 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the April 12th low crossing at 3.9950 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 11th high crossing at 4.5950. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.7070. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.0880. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at 3.9950.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's gains. Rains falling and forecasted for portions of the Midwest today and into Friday are weighing on prices. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.87 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at $6.02 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.87 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $7.17 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.29 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.02 3/4.
July wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.90 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.15 1/4. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.71. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.90 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.36 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.15 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.47 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $5.59 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.20 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.47 1/2. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.59 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.43 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.11 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.43 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.68 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was lower overnight as rain is moving across portions of the western soybean belt. Weather forecast are calling for rain to move across the Midwest through Friday with heavy rains to fall across portions of the central Midwest. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the January 25th low crossing at $12.82 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.87 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.19. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.87 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $13.23 1/2. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $12.82 1/4.
July soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. This year's broad double top projects a potential decline to the $333.20 area in the near futures. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $379.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $379.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $402.80. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $353.50. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $331.10. This coincides with this year's broad double top that projects a potential decline to the $333.20 area.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.78. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 55.85. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.31.
Thanks tallpine!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71449/
June Historic heat waves..............working on this later today
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/
tjc............too much rain
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71475/
Crop ratings: Corn -3%, Beans -2%. Spring Wheat down a whopping 10%. HUGE gap higher for MWE on Monday night thats holding. Corn and beans lower because of big rains now falling but we experienced a selling exhaustion earlier this morning along with the threat of too much rain.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71355/
Weather: Bullish for WCB/Plains and in the extended. Tons of rain, which has started for the central and eastern cornbelt.......bearish overall until these big rains got dialed in with a spike low on Thursday morning. Concerns on excessive rains also part of it.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70329/
Natural gas........BULLISH EIA number Thursday.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70798/
Exports......market focused more on weather.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71345/
Beans in and out, then back in the teens, not back out:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71166/
MarketForum producers tell us what's happening with their crops