KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, January 5, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1348.4K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1056.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 540.5K)
8:30 AM ET. December U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +180K; previous +228K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 4.1%; previous 4.1%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.55)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.05)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.19%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.5%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +7K)
Private Payroll (previous +221K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. November U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -49.8B; previous -48.73B)
Exports (USD) (previous 195.91B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Imports (USD) (previous 244.64B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.6%)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +1.4%; previous -0.1%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.2%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
10:00 AM ET. December ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 57.6; previous 57.4)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 61.4)
Prices Idx (previous 60.7)
Employment Idx (previous 55.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 58.7)
Monday, January 8, 2018
10:00 AM ET. December Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 135.88)
ETI, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)
3:00 PM ET. November Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +20.52B)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into record territory. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 6383.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 6631.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 6383.98. Second support is December's low crossing at 6250.00.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this winter's rally into record territory. Stocks are poised for another record-setting session today after the Dow blew past the 25,000 milestone in a global stock rally that is showing no signs of tapering off soon. Traders are focused on the closely watched non-farm payrolls report due later today, which will be watched for any clues as to whether U.S. wages are picking up. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2682.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2731.80. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2682.79. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2629.66.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 150-14 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 154-18 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 153-04. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 154-18. First support is December's low crossing at 150-14. Second support is October's low crossing at 149-07.
March T-notes were lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.304 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.304. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.106. First support is December's low crossing at 123.125. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.205.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: FebruaryNymex crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this winter's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 62.21. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 60.16. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.77.
February heating oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates below resistance marked the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 203.78. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.19.
February unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 174.41 would confirm that a double top with November's high has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 181.53. Second resistance is the May-2015 high crossing at 186.01. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174.41. Second support is December's low crossing at 166.19.
February Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.779 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.108 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.108. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.225. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.779. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.562.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 91.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.78. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 91.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 90.68.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 122.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 121.40. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 122.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.24. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.47.
The March British Pound was slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be forming. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3474 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 1.3666 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3646. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3666. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3474. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3373.
The March Swiss Franc were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0198 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.0352. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0198. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.0103.
The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, October's high crossing at 80.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 80.18. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 80.42. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.48. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.72.
The March Japanese Yen was sharply lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 0.8782 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off the December 21st reaction low, December's high cross at .8981 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 0.8981. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9072. First support is December's low crossing at 0.8840. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.8782.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold were steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidate some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1278.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1334.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1349.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1300.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1278.30.
March silver was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.428 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.874. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.428.
March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 326.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 316.97.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it consolidates below resistance marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.54 1/4. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.54 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.54 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32.
March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 1/2 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.23 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.33 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/4-cents at 4.39 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low but remain above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.32 3/4. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 4.41. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.
March Minneapolis wheat was fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.28 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.28 1/2. Second resistance is December's high resistance crossing at 6.34. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.74 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the late-August low crossing at 9.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.74 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.90 1/4. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 9.54 3/4. Second support is the late-August low crossing at 9.50.
March soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 323.10 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 315.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 323.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 331.20. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 315.50. Second support is November's low crossing at 315.00.
March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 33.36 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34.15. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 34.54. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 32.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.68 at $76.10.
April hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 78.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 76.32. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 78.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.55. Second support is December's low crossing at 70.97.
February cattle closed down $0.70 at 122.25.
February cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.79. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 126.78. First support is December's low crossing at 117.58. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.06.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.28 at $145.50.
March Feeder cattle posted a key reversal down on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 142.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 149.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 142.59. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.66. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 13.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.20 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 17.91 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, November's high crossing at 15.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 80.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.12 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted.