Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:08 a.m.

Advertised pattern change has started. Heat ridge backs up,  CENTRAL Cornbelt drying out...........though not completely dry everywhere.

Forecast for rains below:

Day 1:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 1

Day 1 QPF

Day 2:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 2

Day 2 QPF

Day 3:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 3

Day 3 QPF

Days 4-5:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Days 6-7:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

48 Hour Precipitation Totals

     

Days 4-5
 
            Day 4-5 QPF valid 12z 07/06/18 - 12z 07/08/18     
Valid 12z 07/06/18 - 12z 07/08/18     
[contours only]    
Days 6-7
 
            Day 6-7 QPF valid 12z 07/08/18 - 12z 07/10/18     
Valid 12z 07/08/18 - 12z 07/10/18


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:10 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk this weekend.........N.Plains to U. Midwest.  Main jet stream shifted.  Press your cursor on the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:10 a.m.
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Not much Excessive Rainfall threat.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 07/05/18 - 12Z 07/06/18

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Saturday.......pleasant in the Great Lakes/Northeast. Sizzling in the N.Plains.

                    

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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Much drier air Midwest to Northeast making it more comfortable.

Current Dew Points

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity in the far south.....feels like temperature!

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:15 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7 shows  Very warm/hot in most places.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:15 a.m.
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How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year:

High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:25 a.m.
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Last European model after day 10 cooling upper level trough with the heat ridge in the far Southwest initially but then it tries to move back in with intense heat late week 2.








By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:32 a.m.
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Temperature anomalies from the GFS ensembles:

Current.........Intense heat in N.Plains....cool Northeast.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f000_nhbg.gif


Day 7 Anomolies, most intense heat West but widespread heat across the country.

NCEP Ensemble t = 168 hour forecast product


Day 14 temp Anomalies. Hot West, not as hot East.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:36 a.m.
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Last, 6Z GFS has elongated heat ridge across the southern 1/2 of the US, with heat into much of the US.       

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:38 a.m.
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Canadian model has a few members of the ensemble solution still bullish with dome  farther northeast but most have it southwest of the Cornbelt.     

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 20, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
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Cooler, dry high pressure in the Northeast.....stalled front in the South.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

                                    


By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:42 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:42 a.m.
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Satellite picture. Mostly clear skies.


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:43 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours. ........not much.         

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:43 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal". 

                                    


By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:45 a.m.
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Recent precip...........look at the water logged areas!

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.png

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:46 a.m.
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Soil moisture:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif


By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:49 a.m.
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CFS week 3 and 4. Heat back East? More rains?http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif


Precip below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:50 a.m.
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By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:55 a.m.
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  By Lacey - July 6, 2018, 8:43 a.m.            

            Great job metmike.  Wish you were around when I was actively trading grains and energies.


Thanks Lacey!


                By wglassfo - July 6, 2018, 8:03 p.m.            

                      

Well Mike

We just got saved, last night, with another 1"-2" rain depending on location and farm

Our corn was suffering and will start to tassel next week

Some spots are poking 1st tassel today

Of course with 2 dry spells and the some what less then needed rain [big time less rain than needed] our crops are not so even as they could be

However, a rain and then a cooler day today really helped, which was very welcome

I have no idea how much longer we will continue with just in time rain but our sub soil moisture is gone

However, this rain last night should allow me to deliver my forward contracted corn

It is hard to sell a crop when the seed is still in the bag

It's also hard to listen to all the gd/ex crops with well watered crops/soils and your crop is suffering big time


Wayne,

Happy to hear that you got another nice rain. It's been pretty hot up there for you guys.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                By mcfarm - July 6, 2018, 8:32 p.m.            

            

metmike afc weather with Dr crazy alias has multiple confirming signals with the big heat into the Midwest all the way to mid east by mid July...here locally we have already reached are normal amount of 90 degree days by the 4th

           

mcfarm,

Do you have any of his stuff that you can share with us?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++            

                By cutworm - July 7, 2018, 8:02 a.m.            

            

Can typhoon Maria affect our weather here in US about 2-3 weeks out?

cutworm,

Yes..............and in much less time than that if it was going in the other direction. However, it's tracking west and away from us and will dissipate after hitting land.


Maria will hit Southeast Asia early next week, then weaken quickly. 


It's possible, but not very likely that the weak remnants of Maria could go north and get picked up by the jet stream later next week and then go many thousands of miles eastward, crossing the Pacific and track into North America as a perturbation in the flow.

If that were to happen, the remnants of Maria would not stand out as anything special or in a way that would distinguish its magnitude/characteristics from other perturbations in the jet stream that had non tropical origins. 





By metmike - July 7, 2018, 4:37 p.m.
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These automated NWS forecasts have added lots (too much?) of rain........and have the heat too far east....metmike


Temperature Probability 6-10 day

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
Temperature Probability 8-14 day

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability