If you look at a drought map of the USA you will see much of the western 1/2 is in drought

Now a lot of that country is naturally arid with cattle grazing the best alternative for most those areas. But warning signs are on the horizon

Ca. is in drought and the water for people and agriculture is at the tipping point, with food production taking second place to human consumption. Ca. produces a lot of food and the drought will affect this yrs production. No doubt about that. Now the cattle people also have a problem as the land will not support normal numbers. This means scaling back on herd numbers

Here in the Great Lakes we are hand to mouth on rain fall. Crops look decent, but crops have not entered high water use age as of yet. The rain gods will determine how much we produce. Now you can move to other parts of the country such as the Dakotas and find dry in much of their crops. Expected hot dry conditions will severely test growing crops

In our area, as I mentioned we are hand to mouth. Just to put this in perspective, Lake Huron, one of the Great Lakes is within a couple hundred yards from my sons beach front house. He tells me the lake is 2' lower of water this yr. That means we have not had the usual rain fall.

Moving to the southern hemisphere, the crops are on life support. Weekly down grades of expected production are reported weekly

So you see we have a double edged food problem 

We have inflation which will push prices up as transportation ,  production costs  falls victim to plain old inflation. Can you imagine paying well over 1/2 million for a combine that cost me 22,000 in 1970. Is that inflation??? so you can understand. What did your 1st car cost compared to today, for those of you who don't know what a combine may be. I remember a truck cost 1700 in 1967 and a 1970 muscle car cost 3200

Then we have production problems

We have not seen what will happen as shortages hit the grocery shelf but I am not saying food will not be available. Food will simply cost more

I am saying some countries that import food will be unable to pay the higher prices. Until this drought is gone, inflation does some thing, we can look forward to higher food prices

Food, energy, taxes, chips, container boxes on ships what else will cost more???

Everything is my guess

You may disagree but this is what I think