Hurricane Beryl
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Started by metmike - July 6, 2018, 1:56 p.m.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

cone graphic

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 
Beryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye for a few hours before more recently becoming cloud filled again.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.0/65 kt at 12Z, but the Dvorak technique is constrained by width requirements of the convective cloud tops.  That may not be applicable in this case given Beryl's extremely small size.  By disregarding the width constraints, TAFB was able to provide a data-T number of T4.5/77 kt. As a compromise, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt. 
Beryl has not gained much latitude and is still moving quickly westward with a 12-hour motion estimate of 275/13 kt.  Mid-level ridging over the subtropical Atlantic is expected to steer Beryl on a westward to west-northwestward course through the forecast period. An acceleration is forecast to begin in 36-48 hours once Beryl becomes situated to the south of the core of the mid-level anticyclone.  Some of the track models have already shown a northward bias since the cyclone formed yesterday, and the updated NHC track forecast is therefore south of the typically better- performing models.  This new forecast is not too different from the previous NHC track and is also just south of the HCCA model and the various model consensus aids. 
Despite the SHIPS model diagnostics showing increasing shear in a few days, global model fields show a well-defined upper-level anticyclone following the system at least for the next 3 days. Although Beryl's expected acceleration may contribute to some increased shear, the SHIPS model is also probably calculating deep-layer shear over too large an area to accurately capture the shear isolated to the cyclone's scale.  Given that, the NHC intensity forecast is at or above nearly all of the guidance through 48 hours, which is also higher than what we've been depicting in previous forecasts.  Needless to say, it's becoming more likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it reaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours.  The cyclone is also now likely to persist beyond the 72-hour forecast point, and a 96-hour point has therefore been added to the official forecast, showing Beryl near or over Hispaniola by day 4.  By that point, either increased shear or the terrain of Hispaniola would likely lead to dissipation.  But we shall see. 
Key Messages: 
1. Beryl is now expected to be a hurricane when it moves through the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are increasing.  However, Beryl is a very small hurricane, and it is too early to determine exactly where those impacts will occur. Hurricane watches could be needed for portions of the Lesser Antilles as soon as tonight. 
2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal.  Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days. 
Comments
By metmike - July 7, 2018, 11:02 a.m.
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No threat from this system but it should intensify.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Three

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By metmike - July 7, 2018, 11:09 a.m.
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Names of hurricanes. This list of names is repeated every 6 years. If one of the below named storms is significant, the name is retired and a new name, starting with the same letter is chosen to replace it in 6 years:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml


201820192020202120222023
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Elsa
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Julian
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Martin
Nicole
Owen
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harold
Idalia
Jose
Katia
Lee
Margot
Nigel
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney