On our farm in Illinois, we've had 5.8" in the last 12 days. Water everywhere. Still have 600 acres to plant when the ponds disappear

Thanks Jim, 

This is what I've been saying about the ECB the last couple of weeks.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69635/

This very warm/hot dry weather and LOW humidity, with a high sun angle will really dry it out in the ECB the next few days. 

This is how it looks as far as the soil moisture right now(you can see that bowyer is barrely in a  wetspot in w/c Illinois.

The main problem to this dryness being bullish the last 2 weeks  is this below. Some of the driest areas may get the most rain and some of the wettest areas will dry out:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

I am strongly leaning towards the much drier European Ensembles in the ECB(as I have been this month) which I noted back 10 days ago, using the individual EE.

Hopefully, this won't bore you and lets do the same thing again here on May 21, 2021 with similar reasoning, which I will provide in the next couple of pages.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68905/#69268

                By metmike - May 11, 2021, 7:40 p.m.            

So I'm going to apply the forecasting philosophy using the above principles to the current weather pattern.

The ensemble average has massive agreement where the really heavy rains will be. This is extremely high confidence. But in the Eastern Cornbelt, they are all over the place. A few have very heavy rains but around 18 of the 50 solutions have a decent pocket of .5 inches or less, which is very dry for 2 week totals.

The few with 5 inches for that area, bring the average up but there are enough with the  lower amounts to be on the look out for signs that late May could actually dry out in the far Eastern Cornbelt, despite what much of the guidance says is going to be a wet pattern.

Here are all the individual GFS ensemble rain forecasts for the next 7 days.

Note that the vast majority bring the heavier rains eastward across the entire ECB, in fact all the way to the East Coast. If you believe this model, then you think rains will exceed 1 inch by this time next week.

But lookey here at the European model ensemble for the same 12z run time frame.

Almost half of them have less than .5 inches, some very little at all over the next 168 hours in the ECB. A few do have good rains like the GFS did but they are the minority.

Basically they are not nearly as far south or east with rains as the GFS was.

I think this model has a better handle on the pattern........it has so far too. 

Not sure if it's me or the site, but the maps from your last 2 posts aren't popping up for me.

Thanks for letting me know Jim. Sorry about that. 

Could be because its proprietary information and I'm signed into the account for this paid for service. 

I could take a screenshot and send it that way but will pass on doing that because it could be violating the terms of my agreement with this entity. 

Let my verbal description of the 50 individual ensemble members above suffice.

We are in the Great Lakes

One week late April got 1/2" of cold rain

Slowed down the planting pace until May and then planted

Still no rain after the 1/2"

Next Sunday our best chance

Who knows 

Hopefully you'll get lucky and have some rain Wayne.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69635/

My Fair Lady - The Rain In Spain

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVmU3iANbgk

Here’s a much better one.........

Hopefully.......The Rain for Wayne will fall Mainly on his Grain..

That's hilarious!  Good one Mike.  :)