From Natural Gas Intelligence:
August natural gas futures were set to open Friday about 1.5 cents higher at around $2.852, with the market turning its attention to a late-arriving Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report after Thursday’s sell-off.
For the weather effecting natural gas(temperatures that determine AC use) see here:
for week ending June 22, 2018 | Released: June 28, 2018 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: July 6, 2018
|Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN|
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
|Region||06/22/18||06/15/18||net change||implied flow||Bcf||% change||Bcf||% change|
****The reported revision caused the stocks for June 15, 2018, to change from 2,004 Bcf to 2,008 Bcf. As a result, the implied net change between the weeks ending June 08 and June 15 changed from 91 Bcf to 95 Bcf.
The period below and temperatures was used for the weekly EIA number released last Thursday at 9:30am CDT:
These are the temperatures that occurred during the 7 day period that will be used for the upcoming EIA report released today:
EIA number +78 bcf. Must have been slightly bearish as we went down a bit just after the release.
|Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN|
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
|Region||06/29/18||06/22/18||net change||implied flow||Bcf||% change||Bcf||% change|
The +78 compares to the average DJ newswire survey guess of +76. So, it was pretty neutral. Next week’s will be much lower...perhaps near +50 largely due to this week’s intense heat in the Midwest and NE US.
"EIA’s Storage Figure Tops Survey Averages as Natural Gas Futures Steady"
07/06 02:39p CST DJ Natural Gas Climbs Despite Record Production Natural gas prices gained on Friday as summer heat boosted cooling demand.
The above is from today's after market NG report from DJ News. In other words, they have no idea. The morning forecasts/models and 12Z models were pretty much flat vs yesterday morning. So, the rise wasn't from wx forecast changes. I think it was largely from short covering both before and after the EIA report ahead of a weekend, especially with the current storage deficit still being quite large vs both the 5 year average and last year. I think that many folks didn't feel comfy being short this weekend. Perhaps there was more worry about 2 week forecasts warming up vs cooling down for Sun evening's open? Also, even though it was slightly higher than the DJ News average of +76 and there wasn't anything particularly bullish about it, perhaps today's +78 was lower than a whisper #?? H Beryl shouldn't have been much of a factor with GOM production still being relatively low/cooling related demand lost to offset it in many cases/not projected to be a Gulf threat right now, but there's no telling for sure.
Bottom line: nobody knows. One can only educatedly guess. Wx isn't always the main market mover.
"Wx isn't always the main market mover."
Oh no Larry! What would happen to weather traders if that became more pervasive?
Actually, it's happened enough recently to really mess up my weather trading.
For instance, if we were using weather to trade grains the past 2 weeks.
Extended (week 2) forecasts for hot and dry every day during that period. How would one know, based on just weather, that TODAY would be the day that the market shoots higher............when the extended models were actually MORE impressive with the heat ridge on other days before today?
You know what they say. If it were easy, everyone could do it well and there’d be little or no reward potential for the low risk. I think the keys are to not risk too much with any one trade, don’t hold over the weekend, keep in mind certain times of day that tend to work best for you to enter or exit unless it is a longterm trade, keep track of what does and doesn’t appear to be dialed in, watch over the most recent market activity to get some idea of recent support and resistance levels, be wary about possibility of short term oversold or overbought, be vigilant about nearby landmarks such as $3 and what that may imply, and know when to fold (don’t let loss get too big and try again another time). There’s nothing black and white about trading regardless of what one’s method or supposed edge is. But if one truly has an edge, it should work out in the long run to allow for random negating factors not accounted for as long as about the same risk is taken on each trade....sort of being like the house in a casino.
As soon as I get the chance, I would like to do an analysis of cumulative NG injections vs CDDs for the periods around May 10th through July 5th for this year vs past years to see how the current supply/demand balance is looking relative to past years.
"As soon as I get the chance, I would like to do an analysis of cumulative NG injections vs CDDs for the periods around May 10th through July 5th for this year vs past years to see how the current supply/demand balance is looking relative to past years."
Very much looking forward to this Larry! That period must have been in the top 3 for warmest ever.(highest CDD's)
Temps for the previous 30 days ending July 5th:
Temp for the previous 30 days ending June 5th:
Here are those temps broken down to highs and lows:
30 days ending July 4/5th:
30 days ending June 4/5th:
Thanks Mike for those maps. Another thing I’m going to try to do soon is to see if there’s a cool bias on those maps like I saw for Chicago in those two weekly maps.
Related to those two hot 30 day intervals, I do already know that the cumulative seasonal NWS National CDDs through 7/5/18 are 2nd highest of all years since 2002!
2nd highest................not surprised.
Was 2012 the highest?
It was, indeed, 2012.