Natural Gas Friday
16 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - July 6, 2018, 9:58 a.m.

From Natural Gas Intelligence:      

August Natural Gas Called Higher as Market Awaits EIA Data

     8:58 AM    

August natural gas futures were set to open Friday about 1.5 cents higher at around $2.852, with the market turning its attention to a late-arriving Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report after Thursday’s sell-off.

Comments
By metmike - July 6, 2018, 10:06 a.m.
Like Reply

For the weather effecting natural gas(temperatures that determine AC use) see here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/6976/

By metmike - July 6, 2018, 10:08 a.m.
Like Reply

From last week's EIA weekly storage report...........the next one is delayed a day, until Friday.

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report-+66 bcf

 for week ending June 22, 2018   |  Released: June 28, 2018 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 6, 2018 


Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(06/22/17)
5-year average
(2013-17) 
Region06/22/1806/15/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East430  406  24  24   533  -19.3  543  -20.8  
Midwest425  401  24  24   673  -36.8  586  -27.5  
Mountain133  127  6  6   184  -27.7  159  -16.4  
Pacific251  246  5  5   280  -10.4  299  -16.1  
South Central835  828 R 7  7   1,140  -26.8  988  -15.5  
   Salt252  258  -6  -6   341  -26.1  289  -12.8  
   Nonsalt583  570 R 13  13   798  -26.9  699  -16.6  
Total2,074  2,008 R 66  66   2,809  -26.2  2,575  -19.5  
R=Revised.


****The reported revision caused the stocks for June 15, 2018, to change from 2,004 Bcf to 2,008 Bcf.  As a result, the implied net change between the weeks ending June 08 and June 15 changed from 91 Bcf to 95 Bcf.

By metmike - July 6, 2018, 10:08 a.m.
Like Reply

The period below and temperatures was used for the  weekly EIA number released last Thursday at 9:30am CDT:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180622.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - July 6, 2018, 10:09 a.m.
Like Reply

These are the temperatures that occurred during the 7 day period that will be used for the upcoming EIA report released today:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180629.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - July 6, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
Like Reply

                EIA number +78 bcf. Must have been slightly bearish as we went down a bit just after the release.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(06/29/17)
5-year average
(2013-17) 
Region06/29/1806/22/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East460  430  30  30   560  -17.9  569  -19.2  
Midwest455  425  30  30   696  -34.6  614  -25.9  
Mountain139  133  6  6   187  -25.7  163  -14.7  
Pacific257  251  6  6   286  -10.1  302  -14.9  
South Central841  835  6  6   1,141  -26.3  997  -15.6  
   Salt245  252  -7  -7   333  -26.4  288  -14.9  
   Nonsalt596  583  13  13   808  -26.2  710  -16.1  
Total2,152  2,074  78  78   2,869  -25.0  2,645  -18.6  
By WxFollower - July 6, 2018, 2:20 p.m.
Like Reply

 The +78 compares to the average DJ newswire survey guess of +76. So, it was pretty neutral. Next week’s will be much lower...perhaps near +50 largely due to this week’s intense heat in the Midwest and NE US.

By metmike - July 6, 2018, 2:22 p.m.
Like Reply

Agree Larry!


From NGI:

"EIA’s Storage Figure Tops Survey Averages as Natural Gas Futures Steady"

By WxFollower - July 6, 2018, 4:19 p.m.
Like Reply
07/06 02:39p CST  DJ Natural Gas Climbs Despite Record Production 
 
  
  Natural gas prices gained on Friday as summer heat boosted cooling demand. 

 The above is from today's after market NG report from DJ News. In other words, they have no idea. The morning forecasts/models and 12Z models were pretty much flat vs yesterday morning. So, the rise wasn't from wx forecast changes. I think it was largely from short covering both before and after the EIA report ahead of a weekend, especially with the current storage deficit still being quite large vs both the 5 year average and last year. I think that many folks didn't feel comfy being short this weekend. Perhaps there was more worry about 2 week forecasts warming up vs cooling down for Sun evening's open? Also, even though it was slightly higher than the DJ News average of +76 and there wasn't anything particularly bullish about it, perhaps today's +78 was lower than a whisper #?? H Beryl shouldn't have been much of a factor with GOM production still being relatively low/cooling related demand lost to offset it in many cases/not projected to be a Gulf threat right now, but there's no telling for sure.


 Bottom line: nobody knows. One can only educatedly guess. Wx isn't always  the main market mover.

By metmike - July 6, 2018, 6:13 p.m.
Like Reply

"Wx isn't always  the main market mover."


Oh no Larry! What would happen to weather traders if that became more pervasive?


Actually, it's happened enough recently to really mess up my weather trading. 

For instance, if we were using weather to trade grains the past 2 weeks. 

Extended (week 2) forecasts for hot and dry every day during that period.  How would one know, based on just weather, that TODAY would be the day that the market shoots higher............when the extended models were actually MORE impressive with the heat ridge on other days before today?

By WxFollower - July 7, 2018, 9:30 p.m.
Like Reply

Mike,

 You know what they say. If it were easy, everyone could do it well and there’d be little or no reward potential for the low risk. I think the keys are to not risk too much with any one trade, don’t hold over the weekend, keep in mind certain times of day that tend to work best for you to enter or exit unless it is a longterm trade, keep track of what does and doesn’t appear to be dialed in, watch over the most recent market activity to get some idea of recent support and resistance levels, be wary about possibility of short term oversold or overbought, be vigilant about nearby landmarks such as $3 and what that may imply, and know when to fold (don’t let loss get too big and try again another time). There’s nothing black and white about trading regardless of what one’s method or supposed edge is. But if one truly has an edge, it should work out in the long run to allow for random negating factors not accounted for as long as about the same risk is taken on each trade....sort of being like the house in a casino.

 As soon as I get the chance, I would like to do an analysis of cumulative NG injections vs CDDs for the periods around May 10th through July 5th for this year vs past years to see how the current supply/demand balance is looking relative to past years.

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 9:53 p.m.
Like Reply

"As soon as I get the chance, I would like to do an analysis of cumulative NG injections vs CDDs for the periods around May 10th through July 5th for this year vs past years to see how the current supply/demand balance is looking relative to past years."


Very much looking forward to this Larry! That period must have been in the top 3 for warmest ever.(highest CDD's)

Temps for the previous 30 days ending July 5th:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/30day/mean/20180705.30day.mean.F.gif


Temp for the previous 30 days ending June 5th:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/30day/mean/20180605.30day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:10 p.m.
Like Reply

Here are those temps broken down to highs and lows:


30 days ending July 4/5th:


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/30day/max_min/20180705.30day.max_min.F.gif


30 days ending June 4/5th:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/30day/max_min/20180605.30day.max_min.F.gif

By WxFollower - July 7, 2018, 10:33 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Mike for those maps. Another thing I’m going to try to do soon is to see if there’s a cool bias on those maps like I saw for Chicago in those two weekly maps.

 Related to those two hot 30 day intervals, I do already know that the cumulative seasonal NWS National CDDs through 7/5/18 are 2nd highest of all years since 2002!


By metmike - July 7, 2018, 10:44 p.m.
Like Reply

2nd highest................not surprised. 

Was 2012 the highest?

By WxFollower - July 7, 2018, 11:08 p.m.
Like Reply

It was, indeed, 2012.

By WxFollower - July 7, 2018, 11:12 p.m.
Like Reply

So, double whammy of coldest April in many years and one of hottest May-June-early July periods has allowed NG deficits to only barely be cut down so far.