| Date | Prior | Current | Rating | |
| Empire State Mfg M/M | May-21 | 26.30 | 24.30 | C |
| Philly Fed Mfg M/M | May-21 | 50.20 | 31.50 | C |
| Housing Market Index M/M | May-21 | 83.00 | 83.00 | C |
| Housing Starts M/M | Apr-21 | 1.739M | 1.569M | C- |
| Housing Permits M/M | Apr-21 | 1.766M | 1.760M | C |
| Existing Home Sales M/M | Apr-21 | 6.01M | 5.85 | C- |
| Leading Indicators M/M | Apr-21 | 1.30 | 1.60 | C+ |
| E-Commerce Retail Q/Q | Q1:2021 | -1.20 | 7.70 | B- |
| Quarterly Services Q/Q | Q1:2021 | 4.10 | -0.40 | C- |
| RedBook W/W | 5/15/2021 | 13.30 | 12.60 | C- |
| Jobless Claims W/W | 5/15/2021 | 473K | 444K | C+ |
Quarterly Services was a bit of a surprise for me, showing a rare dip. But as discussed, we saw some weakness in segments of Q1. I fully expect a stronger reading for Q2.
Housing Starts and Existing Homes showed a dip, but the Market Index and Starts remain in good territory. Again, I expect to see improvement near term.
Mfg remains strong. Philly Fed showed a "significant drop", but temper that with the fact the previous reading was a 50 YEAR HIGH at 50.2 and a typical strong readng is in low double digits. Good is 5-10. Hard to be concerned.
RedBook settled "back" to 12.6 which, prior to the last few months was an unheard of level. Another one that you really can't be too concerned about.
Leading Indicators came in with a solid 1.6. This was influenced by Housing Starts.
E-Commerce shined in Q1. I expect we'll see some contraction there as people get off-line a bit and physically enter brick and mortar. Don't get me wrong, E-Commerce is the future, but we've seen a lot of unusual dynamics.
Jobless Claims continue to shrink, which is excellent IMO. We are nearing the high normal range and barring unforseen, (which seems to have become the norm of late), that trend will continue.
I have to go with a C this week, based on available data. Suck Factor remains at 5 pending this months Employment Situation. A good report may retire the suck factor, which I expect to discontinue at level 4.
Thanks once again Tim!
So we dropped from a C+ to a C but no big deal I assume.
Just a very anecdotal observation but my wife has a couple dozen employees in a factoring/manufacturing job that has low pay and very low benefits.
They are expanding and she says it's extremely tough to find new help.
According to her, the extra unemployment checks will run out in the Fall and the word that she gets is that people getting those checks now, want to wait until they run out to go back to work because the extra free money to do nothing, though not seeming to be significant is affecting their decision making.
Many have adjusted to life on unemployment.............just scraping by, which stinks but its like.......hey, they are offering to give me an EXTRA XXX amount of free money but only if I take advantage of it for the next 6 months.
Sort of the mentality, when you are buying something that you really want........... that's a bit too expensive for your budget but in reverse.
Let's say that it's $1,200.
But what if you know that if you wait 6 months, the price is going to $1,500?
Dang, I know that I can't afford it but if I wait 6 months, it will be too late, I had better act based on that price difference.
If, however the price was staying the same, at $1,200, you wouldn't be considering what it might be in 6 months........and it wouldn't alter you thinking.
Tim's previous reports:
The federal incentive to NOT WORK is a serious factor. If/When it ends, we'll see amaing numbers, IMO.