KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Thursday, May 20, 2021

8:30 AM ET. May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (Previous 50.2)

                       Prices Paid (Previous 69.1)

                       Employment (Previous 30.8)

                       New Orders (Previous 36.0)

                       Prices Received (Previous 34.5)

                       Delivery Times (Previous 27.8)

                       Inventories (Previous 17.3)

                       Shipments (Previous 25.3)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (Previous 473K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (Previous -34K)

                       Continuing Claims (Previous 3655000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (Previous -45K)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (Previous 1970.3K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (Previous 196.8K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (Previous 298.3K)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:00 AM ET. 1^st Quarter Advance Quarterly Services

10:00 AM ET. April Leading Indicators

                       Leading Index, M/M% (Previous +1.3%)

                       Leading Index (Previous 111.6)

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (Previous +0.6%)

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (Previous -0.5%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (Previous 2029B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Previous +71B)

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

Friday, May 21, 2021 

9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (Previous 60.6)

9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Services PMI

                       PMI, Services (Previous 63.1)

10:00 AM ET. April State Employment and Unemployment

10:00 AM ET. April Existing Home Sales

                       Existing Sales (Previous 6.01M)

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (Previous -3.7%)

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (Previous 2.1)

                       Median Price (USD) (Previous 329100)

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (Previous +17.2%)

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The Dow gapped down and closed lower on Wednesday after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting last month underscored an emerging debate at the central bank over inflation risks. A short covering rally tempered early-session losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to modestly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,582.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 34,454.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 34,741.57. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 35,091.56. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,582.10. Second support is the March 25^th low crossing at 32,071.41. 

The June NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Wednesday but well off session lows due to a short covering rally in the afternoon session. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to modestly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,566.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,429.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,566.52. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,912.45. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46

The June S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 4029.25 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Multiple closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 4179.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4179.50. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 4238.25. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 4029.25. Second support is the March 25^th low crossing at 3843.25.  

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June T-bonds closed down 13/32's at 156-09. 

June T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off May's high, the March 30^th low crossing at 153-29 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 160-15. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 160-15. First support is the March 30^th low crossing at 153-29. Second support is the March 18th low crossing at 153-07. 

June T-notes closed down 100-points at 132.025.

June T-notes closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off May's high, the April-29^th low crossing at 131.185 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.054 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.001. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 133.230. First support is the April 29th low crossing at 131.185. Second support is April's low crossing at 130.255. 

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July crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and spiked below the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.54. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $62.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $67.02. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $76.90.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $62.54. Second support is the April 22^nd ow crossing at $60.55. 

July heating oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $190.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $213.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $207.77. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $213.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $197.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $190.03. 

July unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extended Tuesday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $202.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $228.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $221.70. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $228.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $209.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $202.57.   

July Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extended Tuesday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.881 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the March-2020 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.396 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.150. Second resistance is the March-2020 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.396. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.881. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.843. 

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, January's low crossing 89.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.65. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 91.44. First support is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing 89.71. Second support is January's low crossing at 89.15.  

The June Euro closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 123.08 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 120.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 122.52. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 123.08. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 120.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.93. 

The June British Pound closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, February's high crossing at 1.4245 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3897 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4222. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4083. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3989.

The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1023 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1168. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1023. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0884.

The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 83.66 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 83.25. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 83.66. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.55. 

The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, April's high crossing at 0.093085 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off April's high, the April-9^th low crossing at 0.090990 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093085. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093874. First support is the April-9^th low crossing at 0.090990. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090180.

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June gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off the late-April low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-March decline crossing at $1894.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1809.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-March-decline crossing at $1894.10. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-March decline crossing at $1945.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1809.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1767.40.  

July silver closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28.451 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.966 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28.451. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 29.199. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.966. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.133. 

July copper closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 429.05 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 429.06 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off the March 19^th-2020 low, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is May's high crossing at 488.80. Second resistance isunknown. First support is today's low crossing at 452.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 429.06. 

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

July Corn closed unchanged at $6.58 1/4. 

July corn closed unchanged on Wednesday as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of this year's rally. The high-close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $6.06 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.89. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $6.37 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $6.06 3/4. 

July wheat closed down $0.18 3/4-cents at $6.79 1/4.  

July wheat closed lower on Wednesday on initial news from this week's wheat crop tour that indicated better-than-expected yields. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.59 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.23 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $7.15 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $6.71 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.59 3/4.

July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.14-cents at $6.33 3/4.

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.04 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.89 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.89 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.41 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.28 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.04 3/4.

July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.16 1/2-cents at $6.97 1/2. 

July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.85 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.48 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.48 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $8.07 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.85. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally rally crossing at $6.55 3/4. 

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July soybeans closed down $0.36-cents at $15.38 1/4.

July soybeans closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.56 signaling that a short-term top has been posted.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.66 1/2 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off last-April's low, psychological resistance crossing at $17.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $17.00. First support is the April 28^th low crossing at $14.90 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.66 1/2.

July soybean meal closed down $7.60 to $403.20. 

July soybean meal closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at $399.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $427.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $427.60. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $457.20. First support is April's low crossing at $399.40. Second support is March's low crossing at $395.70.      

July soybean oil closed down 220-pts. at 66.47. 

July soybean oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday due to profit taking. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 70.49. Second resistance is the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 66.14. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.72.     

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June hogs closed up $0.30 at $110.95. 

June hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $111.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $115.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $121.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.24. Second support is April's low crossing at $100.92. 

June cattle closed up $0.15 at $116.90. 

June cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.11 are needed to renew this month's rally. If June renews the decline off last-Wednesday's high, May's low crossing at $112.57 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.11. Second resistance is the April 20^th high crossing at $119.83. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $114.70. Second support is May's low crossing at $112.57.

August Feeder cattle closed up $0.95 at $152.88. 

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Close above the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.87 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.87. Second resistance is the April 21^st high crossing at $154.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.72. Second support is May's low crossing at $141.53.          

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

July coffee posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.             

July cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the March 11^th high crossing at 26.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.               

July sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the April-29^th low crossing at 16.46 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off March's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 18.42 is the next upside target.         

July cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the April 13^th low crossing at 81.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.