KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 19, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 715.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 276.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3281)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +2.9%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 484.691M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.426M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 236.189M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.378M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 134.419M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.734M)
Refinery Usage (previous 86.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 17.483M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -2.208M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published
Thursday, May 20, 2021
8:30 AM ET. May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (Previous 50.2)
Prices Paid (Previous 69.1)
Employment (Previous 30.8)
New Orders (Previous 36.0)
Prices Received (Previous 34.5)
Delivery Times (Previous 27.8)
Inventories (Previous 17.3)
Shipments (Previous 25.3)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (Previous 473K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (Previous -34K)
Continuing Claims (Previous 3655000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (Previous -45K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (Previous 1970.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (Previous 196.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (Previous 298.3K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. April Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (Previous +1.3%)
Leading Index (Previous 111.6)
Coincident Index, M/M% (Previous +0.6%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (Previous -0.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (Previous 2029B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Previous +71B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, May 21, 2021
9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (Previous 60.6)
9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (Previous 63.1)
10:00 AM ET. April State Employment and Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. April Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (Previous 6.01M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (Previous -3.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (Previous 2.1)
Median Price (USD) (Previous 329100)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (Previous +17.2%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,561.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,427.31. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,561.30. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,912.45. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing near 4028.25 would signal a potential trend change and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4158.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4158.50. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4238.25.First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4028.25. Second support is the March 25th low crossing at 3843.25.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off May's high, the March 30th low crossing at 153-29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the March 30th low crossing at 153-29. Second support is March's low crossing at 153-07.
June T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off May's high, the April 29th low crossing at 131.185 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.138 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.001. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.054. First support is the April 29th low crossing at 131.185. Second support is the April 5th low crossing at 130.255.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's key reversal down. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $62.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $67.02. Second resistance is the June-2015 high crossing at $69.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $62.57. Second support is the April 22nd low crossing at $60.55.
July heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally of last-November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1362 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.9813 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 12th high crossing at $2.0777. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1362. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.9813. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9009.
July unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0263 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.2855 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $2.2045. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.2855. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0949. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0263.
July Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.928 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, long-term monthly resistance crossing at 3.786 is a potential upside target. First resistance resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.204. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.928 Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.843.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, January's low crossing at $89.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.64 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.64. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $91.44. First support is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at $89.71. Second support is the January low crossing at $89.16.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $123.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the April-May uptrend line crossing near $121.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $122.27. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $123.08. First support is the April-May uptrend line crossing near $121.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.93.
The June British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's slow. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 1.4245 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3898 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4222. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3991. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3898.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1024 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1168. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1024. Second support is the May 5th low crossing at 1.0923.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally, the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $83.25. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $82.58. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.77.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the May 7th high crossing at 0.092325 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 0.090180 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.092994. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093874. First support is the April-9th low crossing at 0.090990. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090180.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1894.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1808.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is 50% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1894.10. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1945.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1808.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1767.10.
July silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.962 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.015. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.962. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.131.
July copper was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.5764 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is May's high crossing at 4.5624. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.5763. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.2914.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight following a two-day bounce off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $6.06 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.88 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.88 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $6.37 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $6.06 3/4.
July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's low, the 50% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.80 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at $7.69 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $8.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.80 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.59 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.32 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.89 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.89 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.41 1/2. First support is the50-day moving average crossing at $6.32 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.28 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.49 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.49 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $8.07 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-May-rally crossing at $7.06 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.85.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were lower overnight as they extend the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.56 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this year's rally, psychological resistance crossing at $17.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $17.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.56 3/4. Second support is the April-28th low crossing at $14.90 1/2.
July soybean meal were steady to lower overnight as they extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $414.20 opens the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $428.30 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the April 26th high crossing at $439.10. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $457.20. First support is the overnight low crossing at $410.20. Second support is April's low crossing at $399.40.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 70.49. Second resistance is the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 66.26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.78.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed up $2.00 at $110.65.
June hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $111.57 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $115.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $121.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.97. Second support is April's low crossing at $100.92.
June cattle closed up $1.40 at $116.75.
June cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.16 are needed to renew this month's rally. If June extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, May's low crossing at $112.57 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.16. Second resistance is the April 20th high crossing at $119.83. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $114.70. Second support is May's low crossing at $112.57.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.83 at $151.92.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Close above the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.91 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.91. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $154.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.66. Second support is May's low crossing at $141.53.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee gapped up and closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
July cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the March 11th high crossing at 26.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
July sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If July renews the rally off March's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 18.42 is the next upside target. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the April-29th low crossing at 16.46 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the April 13th low crossing at 81.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.33 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.