Unleaded question
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Started by Jim_M - May 18, 2021, 11:02 a.m.

Are we going to see a draw or a huge build in unleaded tomorrow.  My original thinking was that since the pipelines were down, there was a sharp reduction of used gas in a number of states.  Are those pipelines also used to get gas to storage?  Then we might have a withdrawal?

I don't know enough about how unleaded is shipped to storage to make an WAG.  

Based on price action today, it would seem that we are going to see a withdrawal

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By Jim_M - May 18, 2021, 12:31 p.m.
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Some days it just pays to be lucky.  Late yesterday I got out of a long unleaded position at 2.159.  Of course it went up almost another 300 points from there which made for a frustrating evening.  

My hope was the market would come back down before Wednesday morning and I could get back in at a lower price.  So I'm watching the market this morning and up and down, but for the most part above where I got out yesterday.  I was hoping to get back in at $2.14.

I don't know what happened but unleaded and crude collapsed and unleaded dropped about 400 points and I got back in at an even better price of $2.1278.

It's a good day!  

By metmike - May 18, 2021, 1:09 p.m.
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Congrats on your wonderful unleaded trade jim!

It's good to recognize luck for being luck and skill for being skill.

Certainly, there was some skill here in assisting you but when we attribute a few very lucky outcomes in a row to being from skill (as in "I knew it would do that", when you knew that it would do that.............came after it did that).

When that happens, the overconfidence causes us to think that we can predict things that we don't really have the proven skill to predict. 

In the past, when I was a huge trader, many of my biggest losses came after months of my biggest profits......using the same size.

OVERCONFIDENCE will get you. 

The confidence must be close to the amount of skill/understanding which justifies it.

Underconfidence can mean not taking the signals or reacting fast enough so that you  are applying the skills in timely fashion BEFORE the move. Then, the market moves without you and you get frustrated and take the position and it's too late. The skill advantage that you had was lost because you didn't have the confidence to use it BEFORE the market saw what you saw.

I'm so glad this came up Jim because that last paragraph has been defining my trading recently.

By Jim_M - May 18, 2021, 1:44 p.m.
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I have been trying real hard not to be disappointed when I have closed a trade in the green and the market keeps going in my direction.  
It helps for me to go look at the chart and reassure myself that was the plan and wait for another opportunity to get back in.  The markets oscillate creating all sorts of opportunities if we just WAIT!  Which is very hard to do.