KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 14, 2021
8:30 AM ET. April Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +9.8%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +8.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +8.2%)
8:30 AM ET. April Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +1.2%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.9%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +6.7%)
9:15 AM ET. April Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 74.4%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +1)
10:00 AM ET. March Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 86.5)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 79.7)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 97.2)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,655.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,387.22. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,416.67. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,912.45. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46.
The June S&P 500 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4160.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4054.37 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4160.48. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4238.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4054.37. Second support is the March 25th low crossing at 3843.25.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the March 30th low crossing at 153-29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the March 30th low crossing at 153-29. Second support is March's low crossing at 153-07.
June T-notes were slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.139 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this week's decline, the April 29th low crossing at 131.185 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.001. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.054. First support is the April 29th low crossing at 131.185. Second support is the April 5th low crossing at 130.255.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's losses. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $62.64 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $67.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $66.67. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $62.64. Second support is the March 23rd low crossing at $57.29.
June heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's losses. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.9537 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally of last-November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1375 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.0776. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1375. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.9537. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.8912.
June unleaded gas was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0310 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.2855 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.2170. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.2855. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0798. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0310.
June Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3.011 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 2.881 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3.001. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3.011. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.881. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.766.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the gains off Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.83 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at $89.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.83. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $91.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $89.96. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at $89.71.
The June Euro was higher overnight as it rebounds off the April-May uptrend line. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the April-May uptrend line crossing near $120.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $122.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $122.27. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $123.08. First support is the April-May uptrend line crossing near $120.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.75.
The June British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3879 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 1.4245 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4167. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3958. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3879.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0995 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1117. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0995. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0862.
The June Canadian Dollar was steady to higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $83.02. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $82.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.29.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 0.090180 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 0.092325 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.092994. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093874. First support is the April-9th low crossing at 0.090990. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090180.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1841.30. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1894.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1796.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is 38% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1841.30. Second resistance is 50% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1894.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1796.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1757.30.
July silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.662 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $28.451 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $27.628. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $28.451. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.662. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.981.
July copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.5117 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.8880. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.6477. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.5117.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this year's rally, psychological resistance crossing at $7.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $7.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline crossing at $7.73. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.68. Second support is the April-28th low crossing at $6.29 1/2.
July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close below the April 28th low crossing at $7.11 1/2 marked a downside breakout of the April-May trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.80 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.32 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is April's high crossing at $7.69 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $8.00. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $6.90 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.80 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's sharp sell off. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.00 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.00 1/4. Second resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $7.41 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.50 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.32.
July Minneapolis wheat was sharply higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.44 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.18 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2019-decline crossing at $8.18 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.44 3/4. Second support is the April 28th low crossing at $7.23 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.40 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, psychological resistance crossing at $17.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $17.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.79 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.40 1/2.
July soybean meal were higher overnight as they consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends Thursday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $414.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the April 26th high crossing at $439.10 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the April 26th high crossing at $439.10. Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $457.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $414.60. Second support is April's low crossing at $399.40.
July soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 67.44. Second resistance is the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 64.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.74.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $1.93 at $110.10.
June hogs gapped down and closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.93 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If June extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $121.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $115.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $121.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.12.
June cattle closed down $3.00 at $115.20.
June cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at $116.17 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, May's low crossing at $112.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.29. Second resistance is the April 20th high crossing at $119.83. First support is today's low crossing at $114.70. Second support is May's low crossing at $112.57.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.03 at $150.50.
August Feeder cattle closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Close above the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.99 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $146.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.99. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $154.93. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-April-rally crossing at $141.77. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-April-rally crossing at $138.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target.
July cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the March 11th high crossing at 26.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
July sugar closed sharply lower on Thursday due to profit taking. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 18.42 is the next upside target.
July cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.72 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's decline, the April 13th low crossing at 81.20 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 89.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!