INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - May 13, 2021, 4:29 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, May 14, 2021 



8:30 AM ET. April Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services



                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +9.8%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +8.4%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +8.2%)



8:30 AM ET. April Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (previous +1.2%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.9%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous +6.7%)



9:15 AM ET. April Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +1.4%)



                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 74.4%)



                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +1)



10:00 AM ET. March Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales



                       Total Inventories (previous +0.5%)



10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 86.5)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 79.7)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 97.2)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow posted an inside day with a sharply higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,375.13 is the next downside target. If the Dow renews the rally off January's low into uncharted territory, upside targets hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 35,091.56. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,375.13. Second support is the March 25th low crossing at 32,071.41. 

 

The June NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,696.29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,371.92. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,481.62. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,912.45. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46



The June S&P 500 closed sharply higher due to short covering on Thursday as it rebounded off the 50-day moving average crossing at 4047.05. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4047.05 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4163.29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4163.29. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4238.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4047.05. Second support is the March 25th low crossing at 3843.25.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed up 22/32's at 156-09. 

  

June T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below broken support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-25. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the March 30th low crossing at 153-29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 160-15. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 160-15. First support is the March 30th low crossing at 153-29. Second support is the March 18th low crossing at 153-07. 



June T-notes closed up 110-points at 132.085.



June T-notes closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the April-29th low crossing at 131.185 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.054 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.001. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 133.230. First support is the April 29th low crossing at 131.185. Second support is April's low crossing at 130.255. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



June crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $62.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $67.99. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $66.67. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.98. First support isthe 50-day moving average crossing at $62.61. Second support is the March 23rd low crossing at $57.25. 



June heating oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $213.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $188.87 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $208.10. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $213.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $194.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $188.87. 



June unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $202.84 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $228.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $221.70. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $228.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $207.64. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $202.84.   



June Henry natural gas closed unchanged on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two-week's. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3.011. Closes below Tuesday's low  crossing at 2.881 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3.001. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3.011. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.881. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.763. 



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed slightly higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.88 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing 89.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.67. First support is Tuesday's low crossing 89.96. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing 89.71.   



The June Euro closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 122.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 121.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 122.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.73. 



The June British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3876 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes this week's rally, February's high crossing at 1.4245 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4167. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3981. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3946.

 

The June Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0986 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1117. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0986. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0857.



The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the May-2015 high crossing at 83.66 on the monthly continuation chart is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 83.02. Second resistance is the May-2015 high crossing at 83.66. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 82.03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.17. 



The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the April-9th low crossing at 0.0910 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.0939 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.0930. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.0939. First support is the April-9th low crossing at 0.0910. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0918.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



June gold closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1793.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off the 50% retracement level of the August-March decline crossing at $1894.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-March-decline crossing at $1842.70. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-March decline crossing at $1894.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1793.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1754.70.  



July silver closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.609 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28.451 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 27.628. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28.451. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.609. Second support is the April-29th low crossing at 24.745. 



July copper closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 448.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off the March 19th, 2020 low, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 488.80. Second resistance isunknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 463.06. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 448.83. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed down $0.40-cents at $6.74 3/4. 



July corn closed limit down on Thursday due to technical selling after Wednesday's neutral WASDE report showed that the USDA’s ending stocks came in above analyst estimates. Planting pressure is also added to today's selling pressure as well as strengthening U.S. Dollar. The limit down close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.62 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline crossing at $7.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $7.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.62 1/2. Second support is the April-28th low crossing at $6.29 1/2. 



July wheat closed down $0.28 1/4-cents at $7.01 1/2.  



July wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday to mark a downside breakout of the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.16 3/4 signals that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends today's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.80 3/4 is the next downside target.If July renews this year's rally, psychological resistance crossing at $8.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $7.15 1/4. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $8.00. First support is today's low crossing at $6.90 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.80 3/4.



July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.33-cents at $6.57 3/4.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.85 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's decline, the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.28 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.03 3/4. Second resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $7.41 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.28 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.04 3/4.



July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.24 1/4-cents at $7.41 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.41 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.18 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.18 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.41 1/4. Second support is the April 28th low crossing at $7.23 3/4.   

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed down $0.58 1/2-cents at $15.84.



July soybeans closed sharply lower due to profit taking that began in the overnight session. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.31 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off last-April's low, psychological resistance crossing at $17.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $17.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.72 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.31 1/4.



July soybean meal closed down $27.50 to $421.40. 



July soybean meal closed sharply lower on Thursday due to technically related selling. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $414.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $458.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $457.20. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $458.20. First support is today's low crossing at $420.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $414.30.       



July soybean oil closed down 62-pts. at 65.78. 



July soybean oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 66.31. Second resistance is the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 64.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.15.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $1.93 at $110.10. 



June hogs gapped down and closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.93 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If June extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $121.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $115.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $121.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.12. 



June cattle closed down $3.00 at $115.20. 



June cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at $116.17 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, May's low crossing at $112.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.29. Second resistance is the April 20th high crossing at $119.83. First support is today's low crossing at $114.70. Second support is May's low crossing at $112.57. 



August Feeder cattle closed down $0.03 at $150.50. 


August Feeder cattle closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Close above the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.99 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $146.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.99. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $154.93. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-April-rally crossing at $141.77. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-April-rally crossing at $138.45.          



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target.            



July cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the March 11th high crossing at 26.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.               



July sugar closed sharply lower on Thursday due to profit taking. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 18.42 is the next upside target.        



July cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.72 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's decline, the April 13th low crossing at 81.20 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 89.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.           

Comments
By metmike - May 13, 2021, 7:17 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine ...more  weather comments when I get back home!

The question is how heavy will the rains be in the wet spots and how far north and northeast will the big rains go  before they dry up.