INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 13, 2021, 7:56 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, May 13, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 498K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -92K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 3690000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +37K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (previous +1.0%)

 



 

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 243.6K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 358.2K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 304.1K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1958B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +60B)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, May 14, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

 



 

 

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +9.8%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +8.4%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +8.2%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Import & Export Price Indexes

 



 

 

                       Import Prices (previous +1.2%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +6.7%)

 



 

 

9:15 AM ET. April Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

 



 

 

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 74.4%)

 



 

 

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

 



 

 

                       Total Inventories (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 86.5)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 79.7)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 97.2)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,688.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,368.61. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,463.98. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,912.45. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46.  



The June S&P 500 was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4045.75 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4159.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4159.52. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4238.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4042.50. Second support is the March 25th low crossing at 3843.25.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the April-29th low crossing at 156-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the April-29th low crossing at 156-06. Second support is March's low crossing at 153-07.



June T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the April 29th low crossing at 131.185 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.116 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.001. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.054. First support is the April 29th low crossing at 131.185. Second support is the April 5th low crossing at 130.255. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



June crude oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $62.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $67.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $66.67. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $62.63. Second support is the March 23rd low crossing at $57.29.



June heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally of last-November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1375 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.9489 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.0776. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1375. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.0019. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.9489. 



June unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0249 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.2855 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.2170. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.2855. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0774. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0288. 



June Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3.011 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 2.881 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3.001. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3.011. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.881. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.762.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.88 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at $89.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.88. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $91.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $89.96. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at $89.71.



The June Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $122.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $122.27. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $123.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.73.

 

The June British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3875 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 1.4245 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4167. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is May's low crossing at 1.3801. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3669.



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0985 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1117. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0985. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0857.

 

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the September-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $82.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $82.80. Second resistance is the September-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $82.91. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $82.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.18.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April's high, the April-9th low crossing at 0.090990 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 0.092325 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.092994. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093874. First support is the April-9th low crossing at 0.090990. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090180.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1793.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1894.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is 38% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1841.30. Second resistance is 50% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1894.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1793.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1754.40.



July silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.599 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $28.451 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $27.628. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $28.451. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.599. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.942. 



July copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.4865 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.8880. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.6270. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.4866.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.63 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, psychological resistance crossing at $7.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $7.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline crossing at $7.73. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.05 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.63 3/4.       



July wheat was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the April 28th low crossing at $7.11 1/2 would signal a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If July renews this year's rally, psychological resistance crossing at $8.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at $7.69 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $8.00. First support is the April 28th low crossing at $7.11 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $7.01 1/2. 

 

July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the April-30th low crossing at $6.82 3/4 would signal a downside breakout of the trading range of the past three-weeks. July renews the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.64 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $7.41 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.64 1/4. First support is the April-30th low crossing at $6.82 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.71 3/4.



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.41 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.18 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2019-decline crossing at $8.18 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.41 1/4. Second support is the April 28th low crossing at $7.23 3/4. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, psychological resistance crossing at $17.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.33 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $17.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.77 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.33 1/2.  

 

July soybean meal were lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $427.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at $458.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $457.20. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $458.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $433.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $427.00.     


July soybean oil was lower due to profit taking overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 67.44. Second resistance is the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 64.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.16.   

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed up $0.85 at $112.03. 



June hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.66 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If June extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $121.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $115.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $121.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.82. 



June cattle closed down $0.08 at $118.55. 



June cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $116.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.34. Second resistance is the April 20th high crossing at $119.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $116.23. Second support is May's low crossing at $112.57.



August Feeder cattle closed up $2.10 at $150.95. 


August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at $149.25 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the October-April-rally crossing at $138.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $154.05. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $154.93. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-April-rally crossing at $141.77. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-April-rally crossing at $138.45.          



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target.            



July cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extended this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the March 11th high crossing at 26.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.               



July sugar closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking but not before posting a new contract high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.  If July extends the rally off March's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 18.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.         



July cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 96.22 is the next upside target.           

Comments
By metmike - May 13, 2021, 11:20 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


HUGE USDA report......tons of data at this link and tallpine mentioned several key items too. Corn and wheat prices were clobbered by beans, especially old crop was strong.  Weather turned more bearish over the weekend  and continues that way but it could flip again. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69087/


Planting way ahead............

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69207/


Turnaround Tuesday............stomper

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69194/


Weather....continues bearish. We flipped to bearish on Sunday.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68905/


Exports

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69188/


South America

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69012/


Natural Gas....heating/warming up....EIA was a bit bullish!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68653/


Cyber attacks on refineries..............Jim

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69152/


Weak jobs report

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69089/


Week in Review........Tim

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69053/