INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 5, 2018, 7:33 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, July 5, 2018  

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. June Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -12.6%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. June ADP National Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +185000; previous +178000)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 225K; previous 227K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +9K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1705000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -21K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. June US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (expected 56.5; previous 56.8)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 58.3; previous 58.6)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 61.3)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 64.3)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 54.1)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 60.5)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. June Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 54.3)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 416.636M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -3.9M; previous -9.891M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 241.196M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -0.2M; previous +1.156M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 117.423M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected +0.4M; previous +0.015M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (expected 97.3%; previous 97.5%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.295M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.067M)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight lifted by gains for auto makers such as Ford Motor Co., amid hopes that a solution could be at hand to ease tensions between the U.S. and at least one trading partner.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7162.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 6956.00 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is June's high crossing at 7358.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6956.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6855.50.    



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2754.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 2681.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2754.15. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2694.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2681.00.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 145-28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-03. First support is June's low crossing at 142-01. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 139-11.  



September T-notes were lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.261 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 121.212. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.   



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: AugustNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 75.27. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 71.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.67.    



August heating oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 214.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 224.21 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.21. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.62.



August unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 219.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.04. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 226.86. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.



August Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 2.727 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.935 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.935. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.018. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.822. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.727.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 95.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.35.



The September Euro was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.71 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.71. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.



The September British Pound was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3306 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3306. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3471. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.3095. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048.  



The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1.0219 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0075. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 



The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.16. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.83.  



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the October- crossing at 0.9006 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9167 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9167. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9044. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October- crossing at 0.9006. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates above the 62% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1275.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1257.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1275.20. First support is the 62% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20. Second support is the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00.



July silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the April-2016 low crossing at 15.373 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.463 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.107. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.463. First support is Monday's low crossing at 15.730. Second support is the April-2016 low crossing at 15.373. 



July copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 rally crossing at 282.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.31 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 296.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.31. First support is the overnight low crossing at 284.15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 rally crossing at 282.37. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains


Grains were closed overnight in observance of the July 4th holiday. They will begin trading when the day session opens later this morning. Here is how the gains closed on Tuesday.

December Corn closed up 6-cents at 3.65. 


December corn closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are. If December extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80 1/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.00 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.58 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  



December wheat closed up 9 3/4-cents at 5.06 1/2. 



December wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday's as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.28 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.28 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.96. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 12 1/2-cents at 5.06 1/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.25 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.93 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed up 8 1/4-cents at 5.52 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.84 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.76. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.84 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.43. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down 5 1/4-cents at 8.64 1/4. 



November soybeans closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off May's high, the August-2015 low crossing at 8.62 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.26 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.89 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.26. First support is today's low crossing at 8.66 1/4. Second support is the August-2015 low crossing at 8.62 3/4.



December soybean meal closed down $2.00 at 325.60. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 318.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 342.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 342.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 362.80. First support is today's low crossing at 325.10. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40. 



December soybean oil closed down 11-points. At 29.28. 



December soybean oil closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off May's high, June's low crossing at 28.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.23. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.18. First support is June's low crossing at 28.50. Second support is the August-2015 crossing at 28.17.



Comments
By metmike - July 5, 2018, 9:06 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tallpine!