KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, April 16, 2021
8:30 AM ET. March New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.421M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -10.3%)
Building Permits (previous 1.682M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -10.8%)
10:00 AM ET. March State Employment and Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. April University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 83.0)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 77.5)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 91.5)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,380.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 14,034.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,793.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,380.61.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4023.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4167.75. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4110.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4023.41.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of Thursday's sharp rally and close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-13. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-09. Second support is March's low crossing at 153-07.
June T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.249 would open the door for additional short covering gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.230 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.249. Second resistance is the March high crossing at 133.230. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 131.120. Second support is the April 5th low crossing at 130.255.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
May crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at $68.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the March 23rd low crossing at $57.25 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $63.88. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.79. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $57.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69.
May heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends Wednesday's rally, March's high crossing at $198.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $181.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $190.93. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $198.30. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $173.15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17.
May unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close above the April 1st high crossing at $203.60 confirms an upside breakout of the March-April trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the March 23rd low crossing at $186.97 would mark a downside breakout of the March-April trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement of the November-March-rally crossing at $177.06. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $206.22. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $215.48. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $186.97. Second support is the 38% retracement of the November-March-rally crossing at $177.06.
May Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.719 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.568 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.719. Second resistance is the March 11th high crossing at 2.750. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.353.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to lower overnight and is testing support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.55. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.55 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the March 18th low crossing at $91.29. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.38. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.47. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.55. Second support is the March 18th low crossing at $91.29.
The June Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.89 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.79 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.89. Second resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at $121.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.79. Second support is March's low crossing at $117.21.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range above the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3862 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3490 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 6th high crossing at 1.3922. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4009. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3494.
The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0911 would open the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1014. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0761 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0911. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1014. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0761. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.0576.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 5th high crossing at $79.99 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $79.11 would open the door for a possible test of the February 26th low crossing at $78.42. First resistance is the April 5th high crossing at $79.99. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $80.88. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $79.11. Second support is the February 26th low crossing at $78.42.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the March 23rd high crossing at 0.0923 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0914 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 23rd high crossing at 0.0923. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0928. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0914. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.0902.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the March 31st low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $1783.40 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $1723.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $1783.40. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at $1817.60. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $1723.20. Second support is March's low crossing at $1676.20.
May silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.147 would open the door for a possible test of the March 18th high crossing at $26.740. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $24.680 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.147. Second resistance is the March 18th high crossing at $26.740. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $24.680. Second support is March's low crossing at $23.740. Third support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $23.102.
May copper was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it extends this week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, February's high crossing at 4.3755 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0288 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.2440. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0288. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8134.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.52 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $6.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2020 decline crossing at $6.36. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.63 1/2.
May wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at $6.68 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.25 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $6.68 3/4. Second resistance is the February high crossing at $6.88 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.25 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat was steady overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.07 would open the door for a larger-degree rally during April. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.77 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.07. Second resistance is the March high crossing at $6.39 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.26 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $6.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.28 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $6.68 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.83 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.28 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off Tuesday's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at $14.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the March 30th low crossing at $13.64 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the March 30th low crossing at $13.64 1/4. Second support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.
May soybean meal was steady to higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $413.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 1st high crossing at $433.20. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at $442.10. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30.
May soybean oil was higher overnight as it extended the rally off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 55.58. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 58.25. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.35. Second support is March's low crossing at 48.62.