KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, April 14, 2021  

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 693.5)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.1%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 283.6)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.6%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 3068.8)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.3%)

8:30 AM ET. March-January-rally Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (previous +1.3%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.5%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +11.3%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 498.313M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.522M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.588M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.044M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 145.547M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.452M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 84.0%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.236M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.077M)

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

Thursday, April 15, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (previous 17.4)

                       Employment Idx (previous 9.4)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 9.1)

                       Prices Received (previous 24.2)

8:30 AM ET. April Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous 51.8)

                       Prices Paid (previous 75.9)

                       Employment (previous 30.1)

                       New Orders (previous 50.9)

                       Prices Received (previous 31.8)

                       Delivery Times (previous 29.5)

                       Inventories (previous 12.1)

                       Shipments (previous 30.2)

8:30 AM ET. March Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous -3.0%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous -2.7%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -3.3%)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (previous 744K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +16K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 3734000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -16K)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 807K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 246.2K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 611.9K)

9:15 AM ET. March Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous -2.2%)

                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 73.8%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -1.7)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:00 AM ET. April NAHB Housing Market Index

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 82)

10:00 AM ET. February Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

                       Total Inventories (previous +0.3%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1784B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +20B)

4:00 PM ET. February Treasury International Capital Data

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

Friday, April 16, 2021   

8:30 AM ET. March New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

                       Total Starts (previous 1.421M)

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -10.3%)

                       Building Permits (previous 1.682M)

                       Building Permits, M/M% (previous -10.8%)

10:00 AM ET. March State Employment and Unemployment

10:00 AM ET. April University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 83.0)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 77.5)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 91.5)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,288.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 14,007.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,652.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,288.42.  

The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4001.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4139.75. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4077.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4001.43.  

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 25^th high crossing at 157-08 would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If June resumes the decline off last-September's high, the June-2019 low on monthly support crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 25^th high crossing at 157-08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-22. First support is April's low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27.

June T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 25^th high crossing at 132.095 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes this year's decline the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 25^th high crossing at 132.095. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.291. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 130.255. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

May crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the March 30^th high crossing at $62.27 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the March 23^rd low crossing at $57.25 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69. First resistance is the March 30^th high crossing at $62.27. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.79. First support is the March 23^rd low crossing at $57.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69.      

May heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $184.26 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $184.26. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $198.30. First support is the March 23^rd low crossing at $173.15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17.

May unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 1^st high crossing at $203.60 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the March 23^rd low crossing at $186.97 would mark a downside breakout of a four-week old trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement of the November-March-rally crossing at $177.06. First resistance is the April 1^st high crossing at $203.60. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $215.48. First support is the March 23^rd low crossing at $186.97. Second support is the 38% retracement of the November-March-rally crossing at $177.06.

May Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 30^th high crossing at 2.688 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445 is the next downside target. First resistance resistance is the March 30^th high crossing at 2.688. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.725. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.353.  

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $94.43. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.54. Second support is the March 18^th low crossing at $91.29.

The June Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.75 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.93. Second resistance is the March 3^rd high crossing at $121.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.75. Second support is March's low crossing at $117.21.

The June British Pound was steady to higher overnight as it extends the trading range above the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3856 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3490 is the next downside target. First resistance is the April 6^th high crossing at 1.3922. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4009. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3494.  

The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0922 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0757 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0922. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1014. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0757. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.0576.

The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 5^th high crossing at $79.99 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $79.11 would open the door for a possible test of the February 26^th low crossing at $78.42. First resistance is the April 5^th high crossing at $79.99. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $80.88. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $79.11. Second support is the February 26^th low crossing at $78.42.  

The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0918 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If June renews the decline off January's high, the February-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.0892 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0920. Second resistance is the March 23^rd high crossing at 0.0923. First support is March's low crossing at 0.0902. Second support is the February-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.0892.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $1723.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1756.20 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1756.20. Second resistance is the February 23^rd high crossing at $1817.60. First support is March's low crossing at $1676.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2015-2020-rally crossing at $1617.40.

May silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.168 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $23.102 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.168. Second resistance is the March 18^th high crossing at $26.740. First support is March's low crossing at $23.740. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $23.102.  

May copper was steady to higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 4.3755 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0007 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the March 15^th high crossing at 4.1900. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0007. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8134.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

May corn was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally above resistance marked by February's high crossing at $5.72. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off the March 30^th low, psychological resistance crossing at $6.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the March 30^th low crossing at $5.33 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $5.95. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $6.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.51. Second support is the March 30^th low crossing at $5.33 3/4.        

May wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.41 1/2 would open the door for a larger-degree rally during April. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.23 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.41 1/2. Second resistance is March 17^th high crossing at $6.49 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.23 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2. 

May Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.07 1/2. Second resistance is the March high crossing at $6.39 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.26 1/2.

May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $6.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.25 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $6.58 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $6.62. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.33 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.25 1/2. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

May soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends Monday's decline, the March 30^th low crossing at $13.64 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes below the March 30^th low crossing at $13.64 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $14.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the March 30^th low crossing at $13.64 1/4. Second support is the February 11^th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.

May soybean meal was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $414.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the April 1^st high crossing at $433.20. Second resistance is the February 9^th high crossing at $442.10. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30.      

May soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews Monday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 50.72 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.62. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 58.25. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.35. Second support is March's low crossing at 48.62.