Weather Tuesday
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Started by metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:18 a.m.

Advertised pattern change about to start.

Heat ridge backs up west, rains get skinnier.

Forecast for rains below:

Day 1:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 1

Day 1 QPF

Day 2:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 2

Day 2 QPF

Day 3:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 3

Day 3 QPF

Days 4-5:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Days 6-7:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

48 Hour Precipitation Totals

     

Days 4-5
 
            Day 4-5 QPF valid 12z 07/06/18 - 12z 07/08/18     
Valid 12z 07/06/18 - 12z 07/08/18     
[contours only]    
Days 6-7
 
            Day 6-7 QPF valid 12z 07/08/18 - 12z 07/10/18     
Valid 12z 07/08/18 - 12z 07/10/18

Total accumulation

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762


Severe Storm Risk. Plains and Upper Midwest. Push your cursor on the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Comments
By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:26 a.m.
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Most weather maps on MarketForum are updated constantly, from radar images every few minutes to daily precip/models. This causes descriptions of some of the maps to be outdated later on or the next day. Every day, we just start over again with new descriptions and new maps. Please enjoy the comprehensive coverage of your weather here!

High Temperatures today and wednesday, hot in much of the country...cool N.Rockies.

                    

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:29 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7 shows  The most intense Heat backing up..... but still very warm/hot in most places.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:29 a.m.
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How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year:

High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:32 a.m.
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From the GFS ensemble mean products. Temperature anomalies for Tuesday.


https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f024_nhbg.gif

                                    


  Temperature anomalies at the end of week 2.....most intense heat shifted west.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:36 a.m.
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Last operational 6z GFS has an extremely deep trough in the Midwest/East.

The models have not had alot of consistency on the amplitude of the week 2 pattern......but they mostly agree on heat ridge-west..........trough-east.

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif         gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:38 a.m.
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Last European model:

Loading Maps...

Canadian ensembles still have a few members below with a bullish dome farther east:

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 19, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)


NWS guidance for 8-14 day forecast for this afternoon(sneak peak at what it will show). Very Warm across the country but this tool shows much more precip than before...........from ridge riders???

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/ens700_maps.d11.klnT.prb.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:39 a.m.
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CFS week 3 and 4. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif


Precip below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
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By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:43 a.m.
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Satellite picture.


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:44 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  N.Plains and Upper Midwest.

              

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 10:44 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal". 

By wglassfo - July 3, 2018, 2:24 p.m.
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This is typical dry for  us in July

Some chance of rain but not holding my breath

90% chance keeps getting smaller chance as time comes closer

Our corn is starting to show effects of drought

1st planted has stronger root system, even though it needs more water

 but last  planted looks bad

Your map shows chance of rain for us

Hope it happens

I would be lost with out your daily maps

Tks once again Mike

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 5:06 p.m.
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You are very welcome Wayne!

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 5:09 p.m.
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Extreme weather days 3-7:

The intense heat is farther west.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

By metmike - July 3, 2018, 5:13 p.m.
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NWS extended maps: Above temps, below rain in the Cornbelt........same as the previous 10 days of extended maps..........though the latest guidance is cooling things off later in week 2, more than these maps show.

Temperature Probability 6-10 day

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
Temperature Probability 8-14 day

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By mcfarm - July 3, 2018, 6:50 p.m.
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https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html   metmike, here is some stuff from eric Snodgrass, University of Illinois

By metmike - July 4, 2018, 2:19 a.m.
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Thanks mcfarm,

I can use some of that stuff!