KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, July 3, 2018   

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +3.0%)

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.4%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.5%)

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.0%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.1%)

9:45 AM ET. June ISM-NY Report on Business

                       Business Index (previous 56.4)

10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous -0.8%)

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.9%)

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.7%)

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.6%)

10:00 AM ET. July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 53.9)

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 51.2)

1:00 PM ET. U.S. financial markets close early for Independence Day

4:00 PM ET. June Domestic Auto Industry Sales

                       Auto Sales Annualized (expected 16.9M; previous 16.91M)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -9.2M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.2M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.8M)

Wednesday, July 4, 2018  

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 365.3)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -4.9%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 244.3)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.9%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1015.9)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.5%)

  N/A               U.S. Independence Day. Financial markets closed

  N/A               Marianas: U.S. Independence Day

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as traders looked past the heightened U.S.-China trade tensions for now.Trading volumes were expected to be lower than normal because of the Fourth of July holiday on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7184.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7008.21 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is June's high crossing at 7358.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7008.21. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6855.50.    

The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2757.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 2681.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2757.83. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2694.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2681.00.      

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143-27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 145-28 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-03. First support is June's low crossing at 142-01. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 139-11.  

September T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.242 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 121.212. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.   

ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"

ENERGY MARKETS: AugustNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 74.93. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 70.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.22.    

August heating oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 224.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 214.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.21. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.62.

August unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 219.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.04. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 226.86. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.

September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Thursday's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 2.804 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.916 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 2.992. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.018. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.804. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.711.  

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 95.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.21.

The September Euro was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.82 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.82. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.

The September British Pound was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3315 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3315. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3487. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.3095. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048.  

The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1.0219 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0075. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 

The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 76.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.13. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.83.  

The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the October- crossing at 0.9006 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9171 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9171. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9044. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October- crossing at 0.9006. 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it rebounds off support marked by the 62% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1277.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1258.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1277.20. First support is the 62% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20. Second support is the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00.

July silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 15.805 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.480 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.137. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.480. First support is Monday's low crossing at 15.730. Second support is the April-2016 low crossing at 15.373. 

July copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 rally crossing at 282.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.54 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 298.23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.54. First support is Monday's low crossing at 290.85. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 rally crossing at 282.37. 

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

December corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline, which posted a new low for the year.Trade fears and lack of weather threat are likely to keep December corn on the defensive for the time being.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are. If December extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80 1/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.00 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.58 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  

December wheat was higher due to short covering overnight following Monday's key reversal down. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.28 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.28 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.96. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4.        

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 17 3/4-cents at 4.93 3/4. 

December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Monday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.93 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. 

December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.84 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.62 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.84 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.43. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans steady to fractionally higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off May's high, the August-2015 low crossing at 8.62 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.26 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.90 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.26 1/4. First support is June's low crossing at 8.64 1/2. Second support is the August-2015 low crossing at 8.62 3/4.

December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 318.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 333.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 325.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40. 

December soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 28.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.67. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.23. First support is June's low crossing at 28.50. Second support is the August-2015 crossing at 28.17.

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed down $2.08 at $74.38. 

August hogs closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's decline, April's high crossing at 72.45 is the next upside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.73 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 80.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 80.55. First support is June's low crossing at 73.28. Second support is April's low crossing at 72.45.  

October cattle closed down $0.18 at 109.85. 

October cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 105.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 105.12. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.50. 

August Feeder cattle closed up $0.60 at $151.93. 

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 153.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 153.05. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 153.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.33. Second support is June's low crossing at 142.18.    

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.  

September cocoa closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.13 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 22.64 is the next downside target.  

October sugar closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 11.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

October cotton closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 80.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.80 would confirm that a low has been posted.