Would you care to expand on your thoughts as to why  you expect GDP to be down graded

.2% change compared to the huge GDP estimate in a volatile, unpredictable/unprecedented  economic climate doesn't seem that big to me. Am I missing something bear? 

I kinda prefer this one.    Gives the day to day fluctuation and the associated metric(s).  For the record,  I am expecting upward revisions.  Q1 got off to a slow start but from Late Feb through Mar, overall metrics were positive.   We haven't gotten all the data yet,  but I an somewhat optimistic.

Slide 1 (frbatlanta.org)

Thanks Tim, that's the one I will go by.

You may notice the metrics the fed uses to calc GDP make up a large part of the Week in Review.

If you google GDP as I did you will find GDP can be measured by 3 different metrics

I think one was the sum of all goods and services produced

Another was the sum of all income

Another metric is the sum of all spending

Which one are we using in this post

 the sum of all goods and services produced

the big positive estimates we are getting currently are just the bounce out of a huge drop.  

after this bounce, we will see weak growth.  other than huge budget proposals, nothing biden is doing will be good for business.  

just my opinion. 

I agree,  Nothing Biden os doing os good for business.    2-3rd q might be disappointing.  We'll see.    But in the near term,   we're opening up.  Job openings are increasing along with spending,  etc.    Q1 will likely see upward revisions.  

I thought this GDP method of measurement had nothing to do with spending

Without spending,  there is no production..

Think of it this way.  If I sell you a 10 dollar item and you give me 10 dollars for it, has the transaction added 10 dollars to GDP or 20 dollars?

Very true except no where can I find  GDP measured by goods and services produced plus spending

It is either one or the other according to official GDP measurement plus another which is income [I think]

Now if you want to talk about other measures/economic activity then the original GDP measure in this post gets thrown out the window

Which is good with me, however it is not official GDP measurement to include spending with goods and services produced, which was the original post

Which then brings up another problem of measurement or metric, when you combine goods and sevices produced with spending

Were the goods or services produced in the USA or china

Hard to separate which is which 

One reason I suppose spending  and goods and services produced must be either one or the other

Maybe some other reason. I don't know. I did not make the rules. I just follow the official measurement that some body decided was GDP

I am good with your including spending to make the case the economy is improving

I have a problem if spending is goods made in china as that is not a sign of improvement of USA GDP or what is good economic activity in the USA

All those container ships trying to get unloaded in LA ports do not help the USA economy. All that tells us is china will take our paper I.O.U's, buy USA treasuries and we go further into debt buying foreign goods

Goods made and consumed in the USA is good but not a measure of official GDP

Goods and services made and consumed in the USA is good for USA economic activity

I agree: We need more goods and services produced and consumed in the USA for real or good  increased economic activity

Tim might be able to comment on that one Wayne.

As I tried to explain above,   GDP does not track spending, it tracks production.  I produce something and sell it to you, that's added to the GDP.   If we added the 10 dollars I charged for the item, and then added the 10 dollars you spent,  we would be artificially inflating the amount to 20 dollars when the sum value of my production is 10.

If you turn around and sell the item for 12 dollars,   that would add another 12 to GDP

Thanks Tim!