INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - April 5, 2021, 7:52 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, April 5, 2021  

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. G24 Ministers and Governors Meeting (virtual)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. March ISM-NY Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Business Index (previous 35.5)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. March US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 59.8)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March ISM Report On Business Services PMI

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 55.3)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 55.5)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 71.8)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 52.7)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 51.9)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 101.01)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y%

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (previous +2.6%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.1%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

Tuesday, April 6, 2021   

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                      Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 



 

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 55.4)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 53.2)

 



 

 

4:30 AM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

  N/A               IMF World Economic Outlook forecast chapters published

 



 

 

  N/A               IMF Global Financial Stability Report main chapters published

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13,888.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,950.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 13,385.25. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,888.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,950.05. Second support is the March 25th low crossing at 12,609.75.  



The June S&P 500 gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3878.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4033.75. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3929.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3878.41.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 25th high crossing at 157-08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off last-September's high, the June-2019 low on monthly support crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 25th high crossing at 157-08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 160-16. First support is March's low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27.



June T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the March 25th high crossing at 132.095 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the March 25th high crossing at 132.095. Second resistance is the March 2nd high crossing at 133.230. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 130.260. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 23rd low crossing at $57.25 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.22. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.79. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $57.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69.      



May heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $185.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $185.10. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $198.30. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $173.15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17. 



May unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $201.27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $189.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $201.27. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $215.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $189.97. Second support is the 38% retracement of the November-March-rally crossing at $177.06. 



May Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness that would signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.688 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains. First resistance resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.688. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.746. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.353.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $93.43. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $94.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $94.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.29.



The June Euro was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at $116.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.79. First support is the November's low crossing at $116.93. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $115.98.

 

The June British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3849 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3490 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4009. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3494.  



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0447 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0742 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0742. Second resistance is the March 17th high crossing at 1.0880. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0447.

 

The June Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.69 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.12 would open the door for a possible test of the February 26th low crossing at $78.42. First resistance is March's high crossing at $80.88. Second resistance is the February-2018 high crossing at $82.27. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.12. Second support is the February 26th low crossing at $78.42.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the February-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.0892 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0916 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0916. Second resistance is the March 23rd high crossing at 0.0923. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0902. Second support is the February-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.0892.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 18th high crossing at $1756.00 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If June extends last-week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2015-2020-rally crossing at $1617.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 18th high crossing at $1756.00. Second resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $1771.80. First support is March's low crossing at $1676.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2015-2020-rally crossing at $1617.40.



May silver was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $23.102 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.520 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.520. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.318. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $23.740. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $23.102.  



May copper was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 4.3755 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9341 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. Second resistance is the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9341. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8134.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was mostly steady overnight as it consolidates some of last-Wednesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, psychological resistance crossing at $6.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.33 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.85. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $6.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.33 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.29 1/4.       



May wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.29 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.29 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.45. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2. Second support is  the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.70.

 

May Kansas City wheat was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range close sets the stage fora steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.88 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.26 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.88 1/4. Second resistance is the March 17th high crossing at $6.09 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.26 1/2.



May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.24 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.24 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.33. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $5.79.      

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends last-week's rally, March's high crossing at $14.60 is the next downside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $13.64 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $13.64 1/4. Second support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.

 

May soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Thursday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends last-week's rally, the February 9th high crossing at $442.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $404.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $434.00. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at $442.10. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30.      


May soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 49.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.06. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 58.25. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 49.36.       


Comments
By metmike - April 5, 2021, 10:49 a.m.
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Thanks tallpine!