Interesting commodity thoughts/observations
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Started by tjc - July 2, 2018, 11:30 a.m.

  Good morning, MarketForum

  Very interesting developments in n gas and gold as they breakdown.  Crude may be witnessing a top failure.  Grains nearing complete retest of June 19 spike lows.  Currencies approaching prior lows.  Bonds nearing a break up

  Most of you recall I had bot ng puts.  Needed a monthly not a weekly--absolutely correct, but lacked the time to see the support at 288 fail--urgg

  Bot gld and uco puts---expecting dramatic fall

  Anticipating grains to hold, my  thoughts are to buy Tuesday

  Expecting volume, but not volatility to decline by midmorning Tuesday

  Trade well

Comments
By metmike - July 2, 2018, 1:34 p.m.
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Thanks tjc,

Corn is at those lows from June 19th. I didn't think we could get back here so easily but  the latest weather models are less threatening with the heat ridge in week 2.

If we don't have heat in July/August(and heat fill) then this will be a record corn crop........even if its a bit dry.

With the high pressure, upper level dome farther west now on models, there is a chance for ridge riders that drop into the Midwest, moving nwest to southeast and bring clusters of storms. 

High heat for a couple of days ahead of them, then cooling behind them but still enough heat overall to lower corn yields from modest heat fill, especially in the southwestern belt if this pattern would happen and last into August.


The European model had a great deal of cooling and strong upper level energy in week 2 that was flat out very bearish if its correct........however, read below:


                By metmike - July 2, 2018, 2:08 p.m.            

            


Recent posts and market reaction would suggest everything is bearish and getting more bearish, including the weather. 

However, that is NOT the case entirely. You can see below, with the individual Canadian model ensembles that a significant number of them are still pretty bullish with the dome. Enough of them so that that particular solution cannot be ruled out. 

Should those solutions be on the right track, then the lows are right now and the guidance will soon be turning hotter and drier again as the dome shifts farther northeast.

This is the buying set up but only when(IF)the guidance shifts the 594 closed contour below, so that it covers parts of IA for more than a day.

372h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 18, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast


By metmike - July 2, 2018, 2:33 p.m.
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tjc, 

Must be frustrating on the natural gas put. You had that one right. 

NG sure fell pretty hard from just taking a bit of heat out of the forecast. Of course very bearish supplies is the main underlying fundamental. 

In the absence of extreme temps  or increasingly extreme temps, natural gas can't hold up. 


By metmike - July 3, 2018, 11:58 a.m.
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tjc,

So are you long the grains?