Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - July 2, 2018, 9:33 a.m.

Most weather maps on MarketForum are updated constantly, from radar images every few minutes to daily precip/models. This causes descriptions of some of the maps to be outdated later on or the next day. Every day, we just start over again with new descriptions and new maps. Please enjoy the comprehensive coverage of your weather here!

High Temperatures today and Tuesday, hot in the Northeast, back to the S.Plains.

                    

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By metmike - July 2, 2018, 9:37 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7 shows  The most intense Heat backing up.....to the S.Plains/Southwest but still very warm/hot in most places.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 9:39 a.m.
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How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year:

High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 9:40 a.m.
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From the GFS ensemble mean products. Temperature anomalies for Monday.


https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f024_nhbg.gif

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 9:40 a.m.
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Temperature anomalies at the end of week 2.....most intense heat shifted west.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 10:04 a.m.
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Last operational 6z GFS has a massive heat ridge for most of the country. 

This should be very bullish for grains and natural gas..........but it's an outlier without much support from most other guidance. 


      

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif         gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - July 2, 2018, 10:06 a.m.
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The last solution of the European model is BEARISH and much cooler after day 11. The map below is for July 14th. 

 



  • Loading Maps...
By metmike - July 2, 2018, 10:08 a.m.
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CFS week 3 and 4. Heat southcentral and West.......drying out.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif


Precip below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

                                    

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 10:11 a.m.
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NWS guidance for 8-14 day forecast for this afternoon(sneak peak at what it will show). Very Warm across the country but this tool shows much more precip than before...........from ridge riders???

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/ens700_maps.d11.klnT.prb.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
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https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map



Here is the latest radar image. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                                    


By metmike - July 2, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
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Satellite picture.


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 10:17 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  Not as much as recent days.

                By pll - July 1, 2018, 9:54 p.m.    

Nice .9 of rain here will take us through pollination easily even with heat. ECILL

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 10:26 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal". 

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 10:28 a.m.
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most importantly........forecast rains.

Rains the next 7 days. Less rain for IA(that doesn't need any)..............still alot of rain added vs what we thought for this period from past week. 

Day 1:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Days 6-7:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Total accumulation

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 10:30 a.m.
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Areas with excessive rain potential.......not as much of a problem.  Hit the map for full screen. 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 15Z 06/11/18 - 12Z 06/12/18

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 06/12/18 - 12Z 06/13/18

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - July 2, 2018, 10:31 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk. Plains and Upper Midwest. Push your cursor on the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 2, 2018, 1:41 p.m.
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12Z GFS indicates that the previous one with the widespread dome, was in fact an outlier.


This one, like most of the other guidance, backs up the heat ridge to farther west. It allows for ridge rider perturbations in the flow over the top of the  ridge to travel southeast into the Midwest, which is an increase in the rains for the  later periods vs the  previous forecasts. 

Some of the intense heat does hit the Cornbelt, especially southwestern parts ahead of these "waves" which, at the surface will probably be modest cool fronts.

So the recent guidance, besides taking the heat down a notch, is increasing the late period rains.

2 week total rains on the last 12z GFS:


Forecast Hour:  384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif


By metmike - July 2, 2018, 2:08 p.m.
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Recent posts and market reaction would suggest everything is bearish and getting more bearish, including the weather. 

However, that is NOT the case entirely. You can see below, with the individual Canadian model ensembles that a significant number of them are still pretty bullish with the dome. Enough of them so that that particular solution cannot be ruled out. 

Should those solutions be on the right track, then the lows are right now and the guidance will soon be turning hotter and drier again as the dome shifts farther northeast.

This is the buying set up but only when(IF)the guidance shifts the 594 closed contour below, so that it covers parts of IA for more than a day.

372h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 18, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast


By metmike - July 2, 2018, 4:46 p.m.
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NWS extended..........week 2 forecasts, more of the same above temps and below precip. Why did the markets(grains/ng) keep falling today?

To me, the maps today looked LESS bullish(not as hot) and better chances of rain, especially the overnight European model that was very bearish.


Temperature Probability  6-10 day

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

Temperature Probability 8-14 day

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By mcfarm - July 2, 2018, 6:43 p.m.
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wow metmike does afc weather ever have a bullish scenario coming in with big heat....will try to post a couple maps...Dr crazy as we call him is really talking this up

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 6:53 p.m.
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I very much look forward to it mcfarm!


I showed this 06Z GFS solution below, earlier.  If that solution would verify, we would have 100 degree temps from the Pacific to the Atlantic and everywhere in between for a week. Can't remember ever seeing a solution hotter than this for so much of the country in my 36 years as an operational meteorologist. 

See the latest 18z solution below that one. 


       GFS 12 hours ago record heat across the entire country for mid July..........but its been an outlier solution so far.

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif


Latest 18z GFS below, not nearly as extreme with the week 2 heat.      

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif


The last 12z European model has moved strongly towards the much hotter solution at the end of week 2:                   

Loading Maps...

By WxFollower - July 2, 2018, 7:22 p.m.
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 Yeah, NG was down mainly on cooler week 1 vs Friday’s forecasts. It didn’t matter much that late week 2 was warmer on model consensus vs Fri with the significant cooling changes to the high confidence week 1 outweighing in both magnitude and confidence today.

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 7:34 p.m.
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Thanks Larry. 

By metmike - July 2, 2018, 11:28 p.m.
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Extreme weather potential days 3-7. Excessive heat threat is now targeting much farther west. No many people live in  MT/ID to use air conditioning(which requires electricity generated from burning natural gas) and not much corn/soybeans grown there either.

Bring the intense heat much farther east and it will be bullish!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png