INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 2, 2018, 8 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, July 2, 2018  

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. June US Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 56.4)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

 



 

 

                       New Construction (previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June ISM Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (previous 58.7)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 79.5)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 56.3)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous 50.2)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 63.7)

 



 

 

                       Production Idx (previous 61.5)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. June Global Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 56.4)

 



 

 

  N/A               Trump meets Dutch PM at the White House

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as investors remain concerned about trade fights as the year’s second half starts due to tough talk on trade with the European Union.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7183.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6997.11 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is June's high crossing at 7358.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6997.11. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6855.50.    



The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 2681.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2757.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2757.52. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2694.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2681.00.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 145-28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 142-26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-03. First support is June's low crossing at 142-01. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 139-11.  



September T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.117 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 121.212. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.   



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: AugustNymex crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 74.46. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.81. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.75.    



August heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 224.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 214.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.21. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.62.



August unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 219.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 206.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.04. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 226.86. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.



September Henry natural gas was lower overnight while extending the trading range for the past five-weeks.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 3.018 or below the reaction low crossing at 2.867 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.018. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.867. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.804.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 95.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.13.



The September Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.95 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.95. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.



The September British Pound was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3327 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3327. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3503. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.3095. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048.  



The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1.0219 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0075. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 



The September Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 76.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.24. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.83.  



The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the October- crossing at 0.9006 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9176 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9176. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9048. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October- crossing at 0.9006. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1280.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1262.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1280.20. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1246.90. Second support is the 62% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20.



July silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 15.805 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.498 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.192. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.498. First support is the overnight low crossing at 15.875. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 15.805. 



July copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 rally crossing at 282.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.94 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 299.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.94. First support is the overnight low crossing at 291.85. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 rally crossing at 282.37. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.59 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.62. First support is June's low crossing at 3.38 3/4. Second support is long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2. 



July wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 4.59 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/4. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.66 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.59.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed up 17 1/2-cents at 4.70 3/4. 



July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.76 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.53. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat was mostly steady in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.41. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.65. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 5.19 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's decline, the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.74 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.13. First support is June's low crossing at 8.41 1/2. Second support is the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4.



July soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 317.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 339.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.00. First support is June's low crossing at 320.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 317.00.



July soybean oil was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.64 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.64. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.50. First support is June's low crossing at 27.79. Second support is the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed up $1.75 at $82.88. 



July hogs closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 83.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 83.83. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 84.68. First support is Monday's low crossing at 77.98. Second support is June's low crossing at 75.20.  



October cattle closed up $3.00 at 110.03. 



October cattle closed limit up on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 105.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 110.05. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. First support is June's low crossing at 103.50. Second support is May's low crossing at 101.50.

 

August Feeder cattle closed up $4.50 at $151.33. 



August Feeder cattle closed limit up on Friday as it renewed the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 153.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 151.33. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 153.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.18. Second support is June's low crossing at 142.18.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.  



September cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.18 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 22.64 is the next downside target.  



October sugar closed unchanged on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 11.51 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target. 



October cotton closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 81.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.20 would confirm that a low has been posted.

Comments
By metmike - July 2, 2018, 9:23 a.m.
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Thanks tallpine!