KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, March 19, 2021
10:00 AM ET. January Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
Monday, March 22, 2021
8:30 AM ET. February CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.66)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.47)
10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 6.69M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 1.9)
Median Price (USD) (previous 303900)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +14.1%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry
Tuesday, March 23, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -178.5B)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. March Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 14)
Shipments Idx (previous 12)
10:00 AM ET. February New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 923K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +4.3%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.0)
1:00 PM ET. February Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Wednesday, March 24, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx
Composite Idx, W/W%
Purchase Idx-SA
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%
Refinance Idx
Refinance Idx, W/W%
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
8:30 AM ET. February Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +3.4%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Shipments: Cap Goods, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 58.5)
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 58.9)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Refinery Usage
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's sharp decline.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off Tuesday's high, the 25% retracement level of the March-February-rally crossing at 12,146.81 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13,888.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 25th high crossing at 13,337.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,888.00. First support is March's low crossing at 12,200.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-February-rally crossing at 12,146.81.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3847.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3978.50. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3847.62. Second support is March's low crossing at 3710.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off September's high, the June-2019 low on monthly support crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-20. Second resistance is the February 26th high crossing at 161-02. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.198 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.198. Second resistance is the March 2nd high crossing at 133.230. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 131.000. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $58.28 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $64.07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $67.98. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $58.28. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.58.
April heating oil was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $175.06 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $190.36 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $198.68. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $175.063. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $163.77.
April unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $183.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $206.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $217.00. Second resistance is the October 8th 2018 high crossing at $221.41. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $183.55. Second support is the 38% retracement of the November-March-rally crossing at $176.83.
April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.406 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 2.584 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is Monday's low crossing at 2.584. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.692. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.406. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.308.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $92.42. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.85.
The June Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $117.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.02. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $118.61. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $117.85.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes last-Friday's high crossing at 1.4009 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of February's high crossing at 1.4245. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3820 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for possible test of the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.4009. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3820. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0894 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0894. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1112. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0695. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the February-2018 high crossing at $82.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $80.88. Second resistance is the February-2018 high crossing at $82.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.99.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 0.0920. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the March-2020 low crossing at 0.0911 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0930 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0930. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0947. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 0.0911.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1735.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1735.10. Second resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $1796.70. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1533.30.
May silver was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.457 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.457. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at $28.470. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $25.111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059.
May copper was lower in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 4.3755 is the next upside target. Closes below March's low crossing at 3.8490 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. Second resistance is the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8524. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8134.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.38 1/4 would open the door for a test of the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4. If May extends the rally this week's rally, February's high crossing at $5.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36. First support is the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4. Second support is the the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.14.
May wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $6.26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.53 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.53 3/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.88 1/2. First support is February's low crossing at $6.28 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at $6.26.
May Kansas City wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.26 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.26 3/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.64. First support is the overnight low crossing at $5.84 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.79.
May Minneapolis wheat was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.40 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish out. First resistance is February's high crossing at $6.58 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $6.62. First support is the overnight low crossing at $6.23 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's loss.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally off last-August's low, psychological resistance crossing at $15.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.89. Second support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.
May soybean meal was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $413.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $406.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $413.80. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30.
May soybean oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.87 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off October's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 55.75. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.87. Second support is March's low crossing at 48.62.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.63 at $94.30.
April hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the April-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $99.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $94.58. Second resistance is the April-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $99.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.82. Second support is the March 2nd low crossing at $85.13.
April cattle closed down $0.85 at $118.58.
April cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.89. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $126.70. First support is today's low crossing at $118.02. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72.
April Feeder cattle closed down $3.23 at $141.48.
April Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $145.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 145.83. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. First support is today's low crossing at 140.95. Second support is March's low crossing at $137.22.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.93 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 12.21. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 140.45 is the next upside target.
May cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.62 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
May sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.78 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
May cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 82.87 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 81.06.
Thank you tallpine!