KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, March 19, 2021
10:00 AM ET. January Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
Monday, March 22, 2021
8:30 AM ET. February CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.66)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.47)
10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 6.69M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 1.9)
Median Price (USD) (previous 303900)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +14.1%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry
Tuesday, March 23, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -178.5B)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. March Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 14)
Shipments Idx (previous 12)
10:00 AM ET. February New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 923K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +4.3%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.0)
1:00 PM ET. February Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Wednesday, March 24, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx
Composite Idx, W/W%
Purchase Idx-SA
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%
Refinance Idx
Refinance Idx, W/W%
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
8:30 AM ET. February Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +3.4%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Shipments: Cap Goods, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 58.5)
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 58.9)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Refinery Usage
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off January's low into uncharted territory, upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,922.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 33,227.78. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32,448.52. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,922.36.
The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,867.40 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 13,287.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 25th high crossing at 13,337.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,888.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,867.40. Second support is March's low crossing at 12,200.00.
The June S&P 500 posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Thursday consolidating some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3844.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3978.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3844.20. Second support is March's low crossing at 3710.50.
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June T-bonds closed down 27/32's at 154-10.
June T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off last-September's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off November's high, the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-31. Second resistance is the February 26th high crossing at 161-02. First support is today's low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27.
June T-notes closed down 230-pts. At 131.120.
June T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it posted a new contract low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off the January 27th high, the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.242 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.242. Second resistance is the March 2nd high crossing at 133.230. First support is today's low crossing at 131.000. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday and closed below the 20-day moving average crossing at $63.11 signaling that a short-term top has been posted.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $58.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $64.58 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $67.98. Second resistance is theOctober-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $58.08. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-rallycrossing at $55.58.
April heating oil closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $188.45 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $174.50 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $198.68. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $174.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $163.77.
April unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $201.02 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $182.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $207.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $217.00. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $221.41. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $182.78. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $176.83.
April Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.406 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.717 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.604. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.733. First support is today's low crossing at 2.422. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 2.406.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing 91.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 93.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 92.41. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 93.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing 91.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing 90.81.
The June Euro closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 117.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.38. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.11. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 118.61. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 117.85.
The June British Pound closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.4009 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3813 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.4009. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3813. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1.3672.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0914 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-January-rally crossing at 1.0586 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0876. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0914. First support is March's low crossing at 1.0695. Second support isthe 75% retracement level of the March-January-rally crossing at 1.0586.
The June Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal down with today's lower close after spiking above the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.52. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the February-2018 high crossing at 82.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.52. Second resistance is the February-2018 high crossing at 82.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.95.
The June Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, last-March's low crossing at 0.0911 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0920. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is last-March's low crossing at 0.0911.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
April gold closed higher on Thursday. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1737.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1800.20 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1754.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1800.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1533.30.
May silver closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.500 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 24.059 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.500. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at 28.470. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 25.111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 24.059.
May copper closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 437.55 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 384.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 422.75. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 437.55. First support is March's low crossing at 384.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 384.33.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed up a $0.03 3/4-cents at $5.58.
May corn closed sharply lower on Thursday due to technically related selling triggered by spillover weakness from energy along with a number of other commodities. Additional pressure came from news of improved weather conditions in South America that could boost production potential there. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.14. Closes above the February 23rd high crossing at $5.59 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $6.36. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/4. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.14.
May wheat closed down $0.09 1/2-cents at $6.30 1/2.
May wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at $6.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.54. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.88 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $6.29. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at $6.17.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.14-cents at $5.87.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.27 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.27 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $5.85 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.79.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.07 3/4-cents at $6.25 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.41 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $6.52 1/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.58 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $6.24 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down $0.26 1/4-cents at $13.91 1/2.
May soybeans closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.88 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, last-April's, psychological resistance crossing at $15.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.88 1/4. Second support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.
May soybean meal closed down $6.70 to $398.20.
May soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $376.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $408.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.00. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $376.30.
May soybean oil closed down 108 pts. at 53.52.
May soybean oil closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off October's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 55.75. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.55. Second support is March's low crossing at 48.62.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.63 at $94.30.
April hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the April-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $99.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $94.58. Second resistance is the April-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $99.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.82. Second support is the March 2nd low crossing at $85.13.
April cattle closed down $0.85 at $118.58.
April cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.89. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $126.70. First support is today's low crossing at $118.02. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72.
April Feeder cattle closed down $3.23 at $141.48.
April Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $145.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 145.83. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. First support is today's low crossing at 140.95. Second support is March's low crossing at $137.22.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.93 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 12.21. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 140.45 is the next upside target.
May cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.62 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
May sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.78 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
May cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 82.87 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 81.06.
Thanks tallpine!