KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, March 15, 2021 

8:30 AM ET. March Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (previous 12.1)

                       Employment Idx (previous 12.1)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 10.8)

                       Prices Received (previous 23.4)

10:00 AM ET. January State Employment and Unemployment

4:00 PM ET. January Treasury International Capital Data

Tuesday, March 16, 2021 

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

8:30 AM ET. February Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +5.3%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +5.9%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +6.1%)

8:30 AM ET. February Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (previous +1.4%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.9%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +8.3%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

9:15 AM ET. February Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 75.6%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.7)

10:00 AM ET. March NAHB Housing Market Index

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 84)

10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

                       Total Inventories (previous +0.6%)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

  N/A              U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off January's low into uncharted territory, upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,631.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 32,676.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,631.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31,174.14. 

The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,133.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 12,146.81 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,133.84. Second resistance is the February 25^th high crossing at 13,337.50. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 12,200.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 12,146.81.   

The June S&P 500 posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Thursday's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3824.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3949.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3824.90. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3710.50.  

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June T-bonds closed down 2-03/32's at 155-26. 

June T-bonds closed sharply lower on Friday as it renewed the decline off last-September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off November's high, the January-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 155-05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-18. Second resistance is the February 18^th high crossing at 163-22. First support is today's low crossing at 155-12. Second support is the January-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 155-05.

June T-notes closed down 240-pts. At 131.275.

June T-notes closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off the January 27^th high, the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.121 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.121. Second resistance is the February 24^th high crossing at 134.200. First support is today's low crossing at 131.230. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

April crude oil closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $59.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $67.98. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90.First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $59.24. Second support is the February 12^th low crossing at $57.31.  

April heating oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of  the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $186.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $198.68. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of  the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $186.73. Second support is the February 12^th low crossing at $171.81.  

April unleaded gas closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $221.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $197.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $215.99. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $221.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.43. Second support is the February 12^th low crossing at $175.76.    

April Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.496 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.808 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.808. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.060. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 2.596. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 2.496. 

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The June Dollar closed higher on Friday ending a three-day decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing 90.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 93.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 92.41. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 93.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing 90.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing 90.64.   

The June Euro closed lower on Friday as it ending a three-day rebound off Tuesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.71 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 117.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.71. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 122.71. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 118.61. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 117.85.  

The June British Pound closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Friday's low, February's high crossing at 1.4245 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3790 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.4020. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3790. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.3586.

The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off Tuesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0991 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-January-rally crossing at 1.0586 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0835. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0991. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0695. Second support isthe 75% retracement level of the March-January-rally crossing at 1.0586.

The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off the March 2020 low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 26^th low crossing at 79.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.26. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.52. First support is the February 26^th low crossing at 79.30. Second support is the January 28^th low crossing at 77.66. 

The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday and below the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0920. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, last-March's low crossing at 0.0911 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0937 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0927. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0937. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.0916. Second support is last-March's low crossing at 0.0911.

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

April gold closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1749.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1749.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1816.00. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1533.30.

May silver closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.742 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 24.059 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.742. Second resistance is the February 23^rd high crossing at 28.470. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 25.111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 24.059. 

May copper closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off March's low, the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 454.00 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 380.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 422.75. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 437.55. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 384.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 380.13.  

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

May Corn closed up a $0.00 1/2-cent at $5.39. 

May corn closed fractionally higher on Friday as it bounced off support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.31 3/4..The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are  possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.31 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.14. Closes above the February 23rd high crossing at $5.59 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $6.36. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.31 3/4. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.14. 

May wheat closed down $0.04-cents at $6.38 1/2.  

May wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $6.28 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.57 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $6.88 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. First support is today's low crossing at $6.37 1/2. Second support is February's low crossing at $6.28 1/2.       

May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at $6.03 1/2.

May Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline below the 25% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $6.08 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.31 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.31 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.64. First support is today's low crossing at $6.00 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.79.      

May Minneapolis wheat closed down a $0.00 1/4-cent at $6.33 3/4. 

May Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $6.52 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $6.58 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at crossing at $6.62. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.35 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4.     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

May soybeans closed down a $0.00 1/4-cents at $14.13.

May soybeans closed fractionally lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off January's low, last-April's, psychological resistance crossing at $15.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.04 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.80.

May soybean meal closed down $4.10 to $400.70. 

May soybean meal closed lower on Friday and tested the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90 as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $376.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $428.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $413.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $419.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $376.30.       

May soybean oil closed up 75 pts. at 55.36. 

May soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off the 2020 lows. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off October's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 55.59. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.86.      

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

April hogs closed down $0.10 at $91.40. 

April hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $91.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.31. Second support is the March 2^nd low crossing at $85.13. 

April cattle closed up $0.48 at $119.00 

April cattle closed higher on Friday as it extended the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.02. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $126.70. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $118.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72. 

April Feeder cattle closed up $1.95 at $143.23. 

April Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.19 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $135.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 143.85. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $145.80. First support last-Friday's low crossing at $137.22. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.          

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

May coffee closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.19 signals that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.86 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 12.21.          

May cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.94 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.            

May sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.     

May cotton closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.19 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 81.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.